USD\/CAD, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,4045 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 1,3991\u2019den toparland\u0131. Statistics Canada verilerine g\u00f6re Kanada ekonomisi may\u0131sta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; nisanda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilen %0,6\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 izledi. \u00dcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 mal \u00fcreten ve hizmet \u00fcreten sekt\u00f6rlere yay\u0131ld\u0131 ve 20 sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 13\u2019\u00fc art\u0131\u015f bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki destek, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 tutabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi sonucu zay\u0131flad\u0131. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler enflasyon endi\u015felerini g\u00fcndemde tutarken, piyasalar eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fed, faizi %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rak\u0131rken, \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131 derhal art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131; Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh ise fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden tesis etme taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fc yineledi. CME FedWatch, piyasalar\u0131n eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olas\u0131l\u0131k verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Dikkatler cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nihai Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni anketi, T\u00fcketici Beklentileri ile 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00fcketici Enflasyon Beklentilerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,3991\u2019deki son iki haftal\u0131k dipten toparlanarak 1,4045 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 1,4000 seviyesine yak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc psikolojik destek dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CAD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131 almak olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu konumlanma, Fed\u2019in bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha hedeflemesiyle geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131za imkan verir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa g\u00f6stergeleri \u015fu anda eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %65 olas\u0131l\u0131k veriyor; bu ad\u0131m politika faizini %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden yararlanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 1,4100 ve 1,4200 seviyelerine hedeflenen bull call spread stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m azami riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken, Fed ile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden faydalanacak \u015fekilde pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131sta %0,3\u2019l\u00fck diren\u00e7li GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi Loonie\u2019ye temel bir destek sa\u011flasa da, tarihsel veriler yurti\u00e7i b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin agresif Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131 nadiren g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Olas\u0131 ani CAD g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in 1,3900\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda out-of-the-money put opsiyonlar\u0131 yaz\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir. Bu sayede USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda mevcut %7,4 z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanarak prim geliri elde edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131 y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k sergiliyor; WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde ayl\u0131k fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n %12 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. USD\/CAD\u2019in petrol ile tarihsel olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k -0,70 d\u00fczeyinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc negatif korelasyon ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n kurda sert hareketleri tetiklemesi muhtemel. Bu enerji kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler yak\u0131ndan izlenerek, CAD kaynakl\u0131 ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD uzun pozisyonlar\u0131na giri\u015f i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD, 1,3991 dipten 1,4045\u2019e toparland\u0131. Kanada GSYH %0,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcse de Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ve eyl\u00fclde %65 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi dolar\u0131 destekliyor; enerji oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52143","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t