Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan istikrar kazanmas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentiler, getiri sa\u011flamayan de\u011ferli metal \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. XAU\/USD, 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,60 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.037 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar Endeksi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Japon Yeni\u2019ni desteklemek amac\u0131yla Tokyo kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi \u015f\u00fcpheleriyle alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine inerken, daha sonra toparlanarak %0,37 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,34\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Dolar, endeks Temmuz ay\u0131n\u0131 negatif kapatmaya y\u00f6nelmi\u015f olsa da, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini besleyen daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan destek buldu.<\/p>\n\n
Bu arada alt\u0131n, al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n 4.000 dolar seviyesini savunmas\u0131yla d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu; ancak y\u00fcksek ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri toparlanmalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Fed, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizi %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu; \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131 ise derhal art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131. Piyasalar, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %66 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6stergeler dengelenmeye i\u015faret etti: RSI 45 civar\u0131nda, ADX ise 28 seviyesindeydi. Destek 4.000 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 3.850 dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken; diren\u00e7 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.071 dolarda, sonras\u0131nda 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.185 dolar ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.425 dolar seviyelerinde bulunuyordu.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, metalin psikolojik 4.000 dolar seviyesindeki kritik deste\u011fi korumas\u0131 nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda yatay bant (range-bound) stratejileri benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. ADX\u2019in 28 ile trendin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi, k\u0131sa vadeli strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya iron condor stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir. Bu kurgu, XAU\/USD\u2019nin 3.850 dolar destek ile 4.185 dolar diren\u00e7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6rece g\u00fcvenli dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken prim toplamaya olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %66 olmas\u0131 senaryosuna haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor; tarihsel olarak y\u00fckselen reel getiriler nedeniyle bu durum alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutar. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine ili\u015fkin veriler, piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde alt\u0131n\u0131n toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki haftalarda s\u0131kl\u0131kla %3 ila %5 aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmeler ya\u015fayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 4.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyucu hedge olarak de\u011ferlendirmesi uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 100,34 civar\u0131nda istikrar kazanmas\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 jeopolitik gerilimlerin g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcl\u00e7eden ziyade dolara y\u00f6nlendirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, faizlerin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde dolar endeksinde kal\u0131c\u0131 %1\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015f, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda %0,6\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle korelasyon g\u00f6sterir. Bu do\u011frultuda, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle tetiklenebilecek ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bear-put spread kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n 4.071 dolar seviyesindeki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapabilirse, k\u0131sa vadeli bull call spread\u2019lere h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ge\u00e7ilmelidir. Bu taktik de\u011fi\u015fim, bir sonraki \u00f6nemli teknik diren\u00e7 olan 4.185 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n hedeflenmesini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene kadar, piyasaya n\u00f6tr duru\u015fu korumak ve gelir \u00fcretmeye y\u00f6nelik opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanmak en temkinli yol olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.100\u2019\u00fc a\u015famay\u0131nca 4.037\u2019ye geriledi; Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %66 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi ve y\u00fckselen getiriler bask\u0131 kuruyor. Kritik destek 4.000\/3.850, diren\u00e7 4.071\/4.185. Yatay bant opsiyonlar\u0131, koruyucu put\/spreadd\u2019ler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t