{"id":52137,"date":"2026-07-31T13:23:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T13:23:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/aud-usd-zayif-cin-pmi-verisi-ve-rbanin-faiz-artisi-ihtimalinin-azalmasina-ragmen-daha-zayif-abd-dolarinin-etkisiyle-07030-civarinda-dengelendi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T13:23:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T13:23:09","slug":"aud-usd-zayif-cin-pmi-verisi-ve-rbanin-faiz-artisi-ihtimalinin-azalmasina-ragmen-daha-zayif-abd-dolarinin-etkisiyle-07030-civarinda-dengelendi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/aud-usd-zayif-cin-pmi-verisi-ve-rbanin-faiz-artisi-ihtimalinin-azalmasina-ragmen-daha-zayif-abd-dolarinin-etkisiyle-07030-civarinda-dengelendi\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD, zay\u0131f \u00c7in PMI verisi ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin azalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, daha zay\u0131f ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle 0,7030 civar\u0131nda dengelendi"},"content":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7030 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti ve \u00f6nceki seansta g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan fazla de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi. Parite, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n deste\u011fini al\u0131rken, \u00c7in\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f veriler ivmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u00c7in Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu (NBS) \u0130malat PMI, temmuzda 50,3\u2019ten 49,2\u2019ye gerileyerek 50 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130malat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI da 49\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ferek tahminlerin alt\u0131na indi. Bu tablo, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131nda faaliyetin so\u011fudu\u011funa dair i\u015faretleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n

ABD taraf\u0131nda ise GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 2\u00c7\u2019de 1\u00c7\u2019deki %2,1\u2019den %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131 ve %2,1\u2019lik piyasa beklentisini kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131; bu durum Dolar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Avustralya\u2019da politika beklentileri, 2\u00c7 T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,6 artarak %0,7 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve 1\u00c7\u2019deki %1,4\u2019ten belirgin \u015fekilde yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan de\u011fi\u015fti. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %4,0\u2019tan %3,8\u2019e gerilerken, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,5\u2019ten %3,6\u2019ya hafif y\u00fckseldi ancak %3,7 konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Avustralya devlet tahvili getirisi 8,3 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %4,49\u2019a inerken, 11 A\u011fustos RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 %18\u2019den %2\u2019ye geriledi.<\/p>\n

\u00c7eli\u015fkili Fakt\u00f6rler Etkisiyle Yatay Seyir Beklentisi<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, pariteyi 0,7030 \u00e7evresinde dengede tutan \u00e7eli\u015fkili dinamikler nedeniyle AUD\/USD\u2019de yatay bir fiyatlamaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131 pariteyi ayakta tutarken, \u00c7in ekonomisindeki daralma belirgin bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 engelliyor. Tarihsel olarak, \u00c7in \u0130malat PMI 50 e\u015fik seviyesinin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde\u2014ki son veri 49,2\u2019ye gerileyerek bunu teyit etti\u2014Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fler h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ivme kaybediyor.<\/p>\n

Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, ABD 2\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,5\u2019e sert yava\u015flamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, agresif bir ABD parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131larak AUD i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, kurun konsolidasyon d\u00f6neminde prim toplamak amac\u0131yla vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak bu dar banttan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n

RBA Karar\u0131 \u00d6ncesi Stratejilerin G\u00fcncellenmesi<\/h3>\n

Ayr\u0131ca 11 A\u011fustos\u2019taki Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlar\u0131n g\u00fcncellenmesi gerekiyor; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %2\u2019ye kadar gerilemi\u015f durumda. 2\u00c7\u2019de enflasyonun %3,8\u2019e so\u011fumas\u0131, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerini 8,3 baz puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek %4,49\u2019a indirdi. Bu nedenle, k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/USD swaplar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve uzun Avustralya Dolar\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; faiz deste\u011finin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD 0,7030\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Dolar zay\u0131f, \u00c7in PMI 49,2 ile frene bast\u0131. ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1,5\u2019e indi. Avustralya enflasyon so\u011fudu, RBA art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %2; yatay piyasa, opsiyon primi f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t