Avrupa hisseleri g\u00fcne daha sa\u011flam ba\u015flad\u0131; ancak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, bilan\u00e7o ya\u011fmuru ile yerinden oynamakta zorlanan enflasyon aras\u0131nda b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f kald\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9\u2019da sabit kal\u0131rken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,4 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve hedefin \u00fczerinde be\u015finci ay\u0131na girdi. Almanya\u2019da i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 6,0 bin artt\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %6,4 oldu. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de konut fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k %0,1, y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,8 artarken Lloyds \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 Barometresi 44\u2019ten 49\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. \u0130talya T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 ile beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131; Fransa ise %1,8 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,1 ile s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131. \u0130spanya 1,8 milyar \u20ac cari fazla verdi. Bundlar, 20 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en k\u00f6t\u00fc Temmuz performans\u0131na do\u011fru ilerlerken, AB endeksleri %0,8\u2013%1,0 y\u00fckseldi; FTSE 10.980,33 (+%0,76), DAX 25.847,63 (+%1,07) ve CAC 8.562,14 (+%0,90) seviyelerindeydi.<\/p>\n
Asya\u2019da KOSPI, 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir hedge fon tasfiyesine ba\u011fl\u0131 sert dalgalanmalar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 haftan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %18 y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapand\u0131; Samsung %24, SK Hynix %29 artarken Nikkei %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politikay\u0131 8\u2019e 1 oyla %1,00\u2019de b\u0131rakt\u0131; Ekim ay\u0131 i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %79 olarak fiyatlan\u0131yor. USD\/JPY, 163\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelerden 158\u2019e kadar sert sal\u0131nd\u0131, ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 160,40\u2019a geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesini do\u011frulamas\u0131 ile kaynaklar\u0131n nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen Kore kaynakl\u0131 dolar sat\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna do\u011fru 159\u2019un alt\u0131na bir kez daha indi. Amazon, 2026 sermaye harcamas\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 220 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltirken, \u00fc\u00e7 haneli oranlarda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen 496 milyar dolarl\u0131k birikmi\u015f sipari\u015f portf\u00f6y\u00fc (backlog) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Apple, bellek maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131rken 4\u00c7 gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %9\u2013%11 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00f6nlendirdi. Piyasalar, \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 riskin masada oldu\u011fu hafta sonuna girerken; Brent %0,5, WTI %0,9 geriledi, alt\u0131n %1,2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, DXY %0,1 artt\u0131, BTC %1,2 ve ETH %1,5 gerilerken ABD vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,5\u2013%1,3 y\u00fckseldi ve S&P 500 vadeli kontrat\u0131 %0,52 art\u0131da seyretti.<\/p>\n
Situational Awareness hedge fonunun devasa 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k tasfiyesinin ard\u0131ndan toz bulutu da\u011f\u0131l\u0131rken teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde dalgalanmalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu geli\u015fme, 2021\u2019deki Archegos \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc and\u0131r\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde prime broker\u2019lar 20 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elden \u00e7\u0131karmak i\u00e7in yar\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve haftalarca s\u00fcren piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut y\u00fcksek z\u0131mni volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek beta yar\u0131 iletken hisselerinde koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeli veya iron condor stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve G\u00fcney Koreli otoriteler koordineli kur m\u00fcdahaleleri y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcrken, d\u00f6viz opsiyonu stratejilerimizi g\u00fcncellemeliyiz. Tarihsel olarak, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2024\u2019te yeni savunmak i\u00e7in rekor 62 milyar dolar harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, keskin trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f ve korunmas\u0131z momentum yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r \u015fekilde cezaland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n 163 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda net bir \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201d belirlemesi nedeniyle USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya risk reversal yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin be\u015f ay \u00fcst \u00fcste %2,5 ile hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirimleri bekleyemeyece\u011fimiz anlam\u0131na geliyor. Alman Bundlar\u0131 20 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en k\u00f6t\u00fc Temmuz performans\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131; bu da sabit getiride volatilitenin kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. K\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerinin sonbahar boyunca y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerimizi korumak i\u00e7in faiz swaption\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lgesel baz\u0131 gerilimler hafiflese de, hafta sonu gelebilecek ani t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f tehdidi nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli kuyruk risk (tail-risk) korumalar\u0131n\u0131 devrede tutmak gerekiyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek hassasiyetini koruyor ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n geni\u015flemesi halinde Brent\u2019in 90 dolar band\u0131na h\u0131zla geri s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu t\u00fcr ani jeopolitik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ham petrolde ve alt\u0131nda \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalarda perde arkas\u0131nda f\u0131rt\u0131na: Avrupa hisseleri art\u0131da, ancak \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,5 ile inat\u00e7\u0131; Bundlar sert sat\u0131\u015fta. Asya\u2019da hedge fon tasfiyesi volatiliteyi art\u0131rd\u0131, BoJ\/kur m\u00fcdahaleleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Riskten korunma stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t