Sterlin, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc politika karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3444 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinin \u00e7o\u011funa kar\u015f\u0131 geriledi. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bir hamle ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik fiyatlama %60\u2019tan %30\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ferken, y\u0131l sonuna kadar piyasalar\u0131n ima etti\u011fi toplam s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma 31 baz puana indi; bu da g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 11,4 baz puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti. Bu kayma, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019ndaki (MPC) b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oylamay\u0131 takip etti; ancak Banka\u2019n\u0131n ileti\u015fimi k\u0131sa vadeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini bask\u0131lad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
GBP, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, yap\u0131\u015fkan ABD enflasyonunu dizginlemek i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yap\u0131p yapmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair \u015f\u00fcphelerle zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131. Greenback\u2019i alt\u0131 maj\u00f6r para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 izleyen ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), zirvelerinden gerileyerek son olarak 100,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n hafif art\u0131da seyretti. ING, son FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131 ve reaksiyon fonksiyonuna ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen belirsizli\u011fe dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n BoE faiz beklentilerini sert bi\u00e7imde yeniden kalibre etti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde sterlin maruziyetini derhal ayarlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %60\u2019tan %30\u2019a indirilmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 giderek daha riskli hale geldi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, GBP\/USD\u2019de ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread stratejileri kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve paritenin mevcut 1,3444 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan, ABD Dolar Endeksi 106,00 \u00fczerindeki tarih\u00ee zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilerek 100,00 e\u015fi\u011fine yak\u0131n kritik bir deste\u011fi test ediyor; bunun arkas\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik artan \u015f\u00fcpheler var. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, maj\u00f6r dolar paritelerinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. USD \u00fczerinde uzun straddle stratejileri, piyasa netli\u011fi olu\u015furken her iki y\u00f6nde de olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca Ba\u015fkan Bailey\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlere ve bunlar\u0131n ikinci tur enflasyonist etkileri tetikleme potansiyeline ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almal\u0131y\u0131z. 2023 sonundaki b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol arz kesintileri gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji krizleri, jeopolitik alevlenmelerin merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede g\u00fcvercinden \u015fahine \u00e7evirebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, GBP oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda beklenmedik bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in Brent petrol\u00fcnde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Sabit getirili tarafta ise, y\u0131l sonuna kadar fiyatlanan BoE faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca 31 baz puana gerilemesi net bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. \u015eahin merkez bankas\u0131 s\u00f6yleminde olas\u0131 ilave yumu\u015famadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Aral\u0131k vadeli \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k sterlin vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu pozisyonlanma, piyasadaki mevcut \u015f\u00fcphecilik ile merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecekteki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in koydu\u011fu y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131ta aras\u0131ndaki farktan yararlanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok yeniden fiyatlama: BoE\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin mesaj\u0131 sterlini bask\u0131lad\u0131; Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60\u2019tan %30\u2019a indi, y\u0131l sonu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma 31 bp\u2019ye geriledi. GBP\/USD\u2019de put spread, USD\u2019de straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49973,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t