WTI, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ham petrol trafi\u011finde k\u0131smi bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret eden haberlerin ard\u0131ndan ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste gerileyerek 80,00 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerindeki seans diplerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Avustralya Commonwealth Bank, ge\u00e7i\u015flerin sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2013%35\u2019ine y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve bunun da k\u0131sa vadeli arz endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Buna ra\u011fmen WTI, ay\u0131 %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapatma yolunda ilerleyerek, son d\u00f6nemdeki aksaman\u0131n fiyatlamaya h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00f6n verdi\u011fini ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 notta, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi hacimlerin %50\u2013%60\u2019\u0131na y\u00fckselmesinin, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda yeniden arz fazlas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 geri getirebilece\u011fi ifade edildi. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fmede Suudi Arabistan, \u0130ran veya m\u00fcttefiklerinin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 kritik deniz ula\u015f\u0131m hatlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak \u00fczere 14 \u00fclkeli bir koalisyon kurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu da ham petrolde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, \u00dcrd\u00fcn kaynakl\u0131 raporlar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019dan f\u0131rlat\u0131lan f\u00fczelerin \u00f6nlendi\u011fini bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt\u2019teki ABD \u00fcslerini vurmas\u0131yla K\u00f6rfez\u2019de gerilim devam etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131smi toparlanmay\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen \u015fiddetle tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 80 dolar seviyesi \u00e7evresinde konsolide oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son bir aydaki %15\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel momentuma i\u015faret etse de, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k trafi\u011finin sava\u015f\/\u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin %30-%35\u2019ine ani \u015fekilde d\u00f6nmesi fiyatlar \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, bu iki z\u0131t g\u00fcc\u00fcn bask\u0131nl\u0131k m\u00fccadelesi verece\u011fi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sevkiyatlar\u0131, tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil d\u00fczeyindeki hacmin %50\u2019si veya %60\u2019\u0131na t\u0131rman\u0131rsa, k\u00fcresel piyasa h\u0131zla yeniden arz fazlas\u0131na d\u00f6nebilir. Bu ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, 75 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sermaye riskiyle de\u011ferlendirmek ad\u0131na ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejilerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Suudi Arabistan \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki 14 \u00fclkeli koalisyonun deniz yollar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenceye almas\u0131 halinde petrol arz\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek ani art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 bu strateji koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer taraftan, \u00f6zellikle son d\u00f6nemdeki f\u00fcze \u00f6nlemeleri ve askeri \u00fcs sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik risk primlerini son derece y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle daha fazla t\u0131rmanma riskini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Tarihsel veriler, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ani arz kesintilerinin WTI z\u0131mni volatilitesini birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde art\u0131rabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da uzun (long) opsiyonlar\u0131 do\u011frudan sat\u0131n almay\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle, y\u00fcksek prim toplamak i\u00e7in para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 ve elde edilen geliri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmekte kullanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Uzmanlar\u0131n da i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u00fczere fiziksel petrol piyasalar\u0131 yap\u0131sal olarak s\u0131k\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, fiyat\u0131n 78 dolara do\u011fru gerilemesi halinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m deste\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi muhtemel. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, ani siyasi a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla ters tarafta yakalanmamak ad\u0131na uzun vadeli pozisyonlar yerine k\u0131sa vadeli haftal\u0131k opsiyonlara odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli (defined-risk) spread\u2019lere odaklanarak, sermayeyi korurken bu y\u00fcksek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez ortamda hareket etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde s\u00fcrpriz geri \u00e7ekilme: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz trafi\u011fi %30\u201335\u2019e toparlan\u0131nca WTI 80 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde geriledi. Ancak ayl\u0131k %15 ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; koalisyon hamlesi bask\u0131 kurarken K\u00f6rfez gerilimi volatiliteyi canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t