{"id":52118,"date":"2026-07-31T08:53:01","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T08:53:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/boe-baileynin-faiz-artisi-ihtimalini-kucumsemesi-sonrasi-politika-faizini-375te-sabit-tuttu-piyasalar-eylul-artirimi-beklentisini-yeniden-fiyatliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T08:53:01","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T08:53:01","slug":"boe-baileynin-faiz-artisi-ihtimalini-kucumsemesi-sonrasi-politika-faizini-375te-sabit-tuttu-piyasalar-eylul-artirimi-beklentisini-yeniden-fiyatliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/boe-baileynin-faiz-artisi-ihtimalini-kucumsemesi-sonrasi-politika-faizini-375te-sabit-tuttu-piyasalar-eylul-artirimi-beklentisini-yeniden-fiyatliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BoE, Bailey\u2019nin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsemesi sonras\u0131 politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu; piyasalar eyl\u00fcl art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisini yeniden fiyatl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Banka Faizi\u2019ni %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu ve Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon risklerini ve olas\u0131 t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 izlese de komitenin bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek seyretmesi halinde harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; ancak fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerden daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 geldi\u011fine de i\u015faret ettiler.<\/p>\n

Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 geriledi. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (MPC) da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 desteklerken, alt\u0131 \u00fcye politikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy verdi; \u00e7o\u011funluk, enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n daha yumu\u015fak seyretti\u011fini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa Vadeli Faiz ve Devlet Tahvili Piyasalar\u0131na Etkiler<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, BoE\u2019nin faizi %3,75\u2019te tutma karar\u0131yla piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n keskin bi\u00e7imde yeniden ayarlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadeli sterlin faiz oran\u0131 (STIR) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 revize etmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. SONIA vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasas\u0131nda eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131klar, ge\u00e7en hafta %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken Ba\u015fkan Bailey\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %15\u2019in alt\u0131na geriledi. \u015eahin beklentilerdeki bu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli SONIA kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvillerinde de bir ralli bekliyoruz; bu da iki y\u0131ll\u0131k Gilt vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almay\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu net bir b\u00f6l\u00fcnme sergileyip \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fun duru\u015funu korudu\u011funda\u2014mevcut 6-3 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi\u2014k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler politika faizine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcz\u00fclme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u0130ngiltere 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Gilt faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,90 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda %3,65\u2019e do\u011fru gerileyebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Kur T\u00fcrevleri ve Makro Korunma Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Kur t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden sterlindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedeflemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu \u00e7eyrekte %2,3\u2019e gerilemesi beklenen enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve BoE\u2019nin faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na mesafeli duru\u015fu ile GBP\/USD paritesi 1,2600 destek seviyesine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Azalan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bundan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Yurti\u00e7i enflasyon \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 kalsa da, s\u00fcrmekte olan ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n kuyruk risklerini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir; bu geli\u015fme enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla s\u0131\u00e7ratabilir ve \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden alevlendirebilir. Ucuz bir makro korunma arac\u0131 olarak portf\u00f6y\u00fcn bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa seviyesinin \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) Brent petrol\u00fc al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu dengeli kurgu, BoE\u2019nin duraklama e\u011filiminden faydalan\u0131rken, jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 ani enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 da koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131; Bailey g\u00fcvercin tonda, eyl\u00fclde art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %15\u2019in alt\u0131na indi. Strateji: uzun SONIA\u201926, 2Y Gilt call, GBP\/USD put; kuyruk riskine Brent call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t