Japon ve G\u00fcney Koreli yetkililer, kaynaklar\u0131n Reuters\u2019a nadir ve e\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir koordineli m\u00fcdahale olarak aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilde, muhtemelen ABD ile birlikte a\u00e7\u0131k piyasadan kendi para birimlerini sat\u0131n ald\u0131. Per\u015fembe gecesi gelen hamle Japon Yeni\u2019ni 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; ancak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faizleri beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi sonras\u0131 i\u015flemciler cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Tokyo\u2019nun kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden test etti. Nikkei, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n muhtemelen b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir Yen al\u0131m operasyonu y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yazarken, ABD otoritelerinin de kur kontrol\u00fc (rate checks) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgisini ekledi.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019daki hareketler G\u00fcney Kore para birimindeki ralliyle ayn\u0131 zamana denk geldi: Won %2 y\u00fckselerek dokuz ay\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bir piyasa kayna\u011f\u0131 da Seul\u2019\u00fcn d\u00f6viz otoritelerinin dolar satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Erken i\u015flemlerde USD\/JPY paritesi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,74 art\u0131\u015fla 160,72 seviyesindeydi. BoJ\u2019un kur kontrol\u00fcne ili\u015fkin yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ve 2013-2024 d\u00f6nemindeki ultra gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015fi, ABD tahvillerine k\u0131yasla faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesiyle Yen dinamiklerini \u015fekillendirdi; 2024\u2019te bu duru\u015fun geri sar\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik de\u011fi\u015fim ise fark\u0131n daralmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7maya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Japon ve G\u00fcney Koreli otoritelerden para birimlerini savunmaya y\u00f6nelik e\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f koordineli piyasa m\u00fcdahaleleri g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160,72 civar\u0131ndaki tarihi zirvelerden geri itti. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin, bu merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n piyasay\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde s\u0131nad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani ve sert oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak Japonya benzer kur krizlerinde piyasaya girdi\u011finde, tek bir ayda rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (62 milyar dolar) harcayarak, tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zorlamak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck sermaye konu\u015fland\u0131rmaya istekli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 uzun pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131; bunun yerine paritede k\u0131sa vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. M\u00fcdahale d\u00f6nemlerinde Yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite genellikle h\u0131zla y\u00fckselir; bu da opsiyon spread\u2019lerini, ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri yakalarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in cazip hale getirir. \u00d6rne\u011fin ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahaleler, USD\/JPY\u2019de yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 saat i\u00e7inde %4-%5\u2019lik h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetiklemi\u015f; bu da korunmas\u0131z vadeli i\u015flem hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131nda silebilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin de Won\u2019u desteklemek i\u00e7in nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri y\u00fcr\u00fctmesiyle, daha geni\u015f Asya para birimi riskini hedge etmek amac\u0131yla \u00e7apraz d\u00f6viz swap\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n (cross-currency swaps) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. BoJ politika faizini sabit tutmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in ABD ile faiz fark\u0131 geni\u015f kalmaya devam ediyor; ancak resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahale tehdidi, dolar bo\u011falar\u0131 i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Opsiyon portf\u00f6yleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u015fu a\u015famada, yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden bu Asya para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 n\u00f6trden net k\u0131sa USD e\u011filiminde kalman\u0131n en g\u00fcvenli yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasada deprem: Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore, ABD\u2019yle koordineli \u015fekilde Yen ve Won\u2019u desteklemek i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131k piyasadan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapt\u0131. USD\/JPY 160,72\u2019ye \u00e7ekilirken BoJ\u2019un sabit faizi volatiliteyi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t