{"id":52101,"date":"2026-07-31T06:21:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T06:21:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dolarin-toparlanmasi-ve-sahin-fed-beklentilerinin-iki-gunluk-yukselisi-sinirlamasiyla-altin-4-100-dolarin-altinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T06:21:55","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T06:21:55","slug":"dolarin-toparlanmasi-ve-sahin-fed-beklentilerinin-iki-gunluk-yukselisi-sinirlamasiyla-altin-4-100-dolarin-altinda-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolarin-toparlanmasi-ve-sahin-fed-beklentilerinin-iki-gunluk-yukselisi-sinirlamasiyla-altin-4-100-dolarin-altinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131 ve \u015fahin Fed beklentilerinin iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla alt\u0131n 4.100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck toparlanmay\u0131 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Asya seans\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 korudu; ABD Dolar\u0131 ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 17 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyesinden toparland\u0131. ABD verileri daha zay\u0131f bir ivmeye i\u015faret etti: ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %1,5 artt\u0131 (\u00f6nceki %2,1), man\u015fet PCE Fiyat Endeksi ise Haziran\u2019da %0,1 gerileyerek Nisan 2020\u2019den bu yana ilk ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kaydetti. Y\u0131ll\u0131k PCE oran\u0131 %4,1\u2019den %3,7\u2019ye indi; \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6sterge May\u0131s\u2019taki %0,3\u2019e k\u0131yasla %0,1 artt\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek oran %3,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e geriledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran restle\u015fmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tuttu; ABD ordusu \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yo\u011fun bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130ran, Umman\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nerdi\u011fi 50-50 y\u00f6netim teklifini reddederken, Suudi Arabistan da Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve Aden K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki rotalar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in koalisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girdi.<\/p>\n

Faiz beklentileri \u015fahin tarafta kalmaya devam etti: CME FedWatch, y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00f6sterdi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD tahvil getirileri ve dolar\u0131 desteklerken getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Metal yatay bantta kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, g\u00f6zler Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve enflasyon beklentilerine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan fiyat hareketi, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir konsolidasyona i\u015faret ediyor; MACD pozitif kal\u0131rken RSI 50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 4.175 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.200 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.490,81 dolar seviyelerinde izleniyor; destek ise 3.976\u20134.000 dolar band\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Yatay Seyreden Alt\u0131n Piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n piyasalar\u0131nda dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrin s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorlan\u0131rken, 3.976 ile 4.000 dolar aras\u0131ndaki kritik destek b\u00f6lgesini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, fiyatlar 4.175 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadeli strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya iron condor stratejileri olduk\u00e7a etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu konsolidasyonun ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, y\u00fcksek faiz beklentilerinin deste\u011fiyle yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanan ABD dolar\u0131. ABD\u2019de 2\u00c7 GSYH %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flarken ve Haziran PCE enflasyonu %3,7\u2019ye gerilerken, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riskleri kal\u0131c\u0131 bir tehdit olmaya devam ediyor. Son CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 %85 seviyesinde; bu da ABD tahvil getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutarak alt\u0131n\u0131n faiz getirmeyen cazibesini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik, Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler, hem enerji hem de de\u011ferli metallerde y\u00fcksek bir risk priminin fiyatlanmas\u0131na neden oluyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de devam eden aksamalar Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 oynak tutarak k\u00fcresel enflasyonu yeniden yukar\u0131 itme riski yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak benzer jeopolitik restle\u015fmeler, alt\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitede keskin fakat ge\u00e7ici s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131; bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ani teminat tamamlama \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netebilmek i\u00e7in pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini muhafazak\u00e2r tutmalar\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Teknik tarafta, alt\u0131n\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (4.490,81 dolar) yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamamas\u0131, bask\u0131n bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f arka plan\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. RSI gibi momentum g\u00f6stergeleri 50 \u00e7izgisinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131sa pozisyonlar i\u00e7in 4.200 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerine zarar-kes emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini, fiyatlar\u0131n 3.976 dolardaki sa\u011flam destek seviyesine do\u011fru gerilemesi h\u00e2linde ise geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131ma haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n 4.100 dolar\u0131 a\u015famay\u0131nca yataya s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; dolar toparland\u0131. Zay\u0131f GSYH ve gerileyen PCE\u2019ye ra\u011fmen petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon, \u015fahin Fed beklentisiyle getirileri y\u00fckseltti; 3.976\u20134.000 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t