Alt\u0131n, Cuma sabah\u0131 haftal\u0131k zirve olan 4.120 dolardan geri \u00e7ekilerek, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kapatmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen 4.100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n dip seviyelerinden toparlanmas\u0131yla geldi. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki Amerikan g\u00fc\u00e7lerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a d\u00fczenledi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131lar sonras\u0131nda yeniden artan g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle desteklendi. Dolar ayr\u0131ca, Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci toplant\u0131da politikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesine ra\u011fmen, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentilerinden de destek buldu.<\/p>\n\n
HSBC, Fed\u2019deki 9\u2019a 3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oylamaya i\u015faret ederken, vade taraf\u0131nda n\u00f6tr duru\u015funu korudu ve y\u00fcksek kaliteli yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyedeki kredi enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih etti. Alt\u0131n, Temmuz ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00c7in\u2019in resmi imalat PMI verilerinin zay\u0131f gelmesi ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki temkinli havan\u0131n da bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi \u015f\u00fcpheleri USD\/JPY\u2019yi dakikalar i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 pip a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; bu hareket k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine k\u00fcl\u00e7enin 4.100 dolar\u0131 yeniden kazanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken, ABD\u2019den gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k GSYH ve i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verileri Dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Spot XAU\/USD 4.082,83 dolarda bulunurken, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.185,76 dolarla fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde; ayr\u0131ca 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 4.426,31 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 4.490,85 dolar seviyelerinde. 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.073,95 dolarda; RSI (14) ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 48,3.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n 4.082 dolar civar\u0131nda konsolide olurken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda temkinli hareket etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Metalin 4.100 dolar \u00fczerinde tutunamamas\u0131 nedeniyle, bu \u00fcst bant direncinden faydalanmak \u00fczere k\u0131sa vadeli ay\u0131 call spread (bear call spread) pozisyonlar\u0131 kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu savunmac\u0131 strateji, alt\u0131n\u0131n 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 4.185,76 dolar\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle de uyumlu \u015fekilde, daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimiyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler, g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nlendiriyor; bu da tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. 2023 sonundaki jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar gibi ani \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde Cboe Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ) %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f, opsiyon primlerinin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fi\u015febildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu y\u00fcksek ima edilen volatiliteyi, zararda olmayan (out-of-the-money) opsiyon satarak de\u011ferlendirmeyi; ani piyasa s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ise s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleriyle korunmay\u0131 hedeflemeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n
Bizim i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lma e\u015fi\u011fi\u201d 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.073,95 dolard\u0131r. Alt\u0131n bu deste\u011fin alt\u0131na net \u015fekilde sarkarsa, daha derin d\u00fczeltme seviyelerini hedeflemek i\u00e7in do\u011frudan put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na d\u00f6nmeliyiz. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6zellikle Japon Yeni\u2019nin dolara kar\u015f\u0131 son d\u00f6nemdeki 600 piplik sert de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi \u00e7apraz varl\u0131klarda oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131, sert kur dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 hedge etmemiz gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 ve dolar endeksinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc dayan\u0131kl\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stermesi, getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in makro zemini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar\u0131 pozitif faiz farklar\u0131yla destekli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n uzun soluklu y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorlan\u0131r. Bu nedenle, makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm netle\u015fene kadar k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem stratejilerine odaklanmal\u0131 ve uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 gere\u011finden uzun s\u00fcre ta\u015f\u0131maktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.120 dolardan geri \u00e7ekilip 4.082\u2019de konsolide: Dolar toparlan\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin beklentileri bask\u0131 kuruyor. Jeopolitik riskler dolara akarken, 4.100 diren\u00e7; 4.074 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa put, aksi halde bear call spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t