NZD\/USD, \u00c7in\u2019in PMI verilerinin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fclemesiyle \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5870 seviyesine geriledi. NBS \u0130malat PMI Temmuz\u2019da 50,3\u2019ten 49,2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ferek 50,0\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, \u0130malat D\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI da 50,2\u2019den 49,0\u2019a gerileyerek 50,0 tahminini tutturamad\u0131. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da ANZ-Roy Morgan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi Temmuz\u2019da 8 puan artarak 99,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131; ancak yine de Ocak\u2019taki zirvenin 19 puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bir y\u0131l sonras\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler -%23\u2019ten -%13\u2019e iyile\u015firken, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 5 puan artarak +12\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, Fed\u2019in %2 enflasyon hedefini peki\u015ftiren \u015fahin tonu sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. FXS Speechtracker skoru 7\/10 ile 6\/10\u2019luk tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 18,94 puan art\u0131\u015fla 147,58\u2019e y\u00fckselerek n\u00f6tr 100 \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Diplomasi ve jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: Pakistan, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtirken, Donald Trump \u201cBar\u0131\u015f Kurulu\u201d anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Gazze\u2019de silahs\u0131zlanma ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u00e7ekilmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi; ayr\u0131ca \u00fcst d\u00fczey Hamas yetkililerinin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirecek bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 teyit etti\u011fine dair haberler yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, NZD\/USD paritesinin 0,5870 seviyeleri \u00e7evresinde zorlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi, \u00c7in\u2019in beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamayan 49,2 seviyesindeki imalat PMI verisi taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde tetikleniyor; zira \u00c7in, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %28\u2019ini sat\u0131n al\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019de ekonomik aktivite daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, Kiwi\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu, Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin 147,58\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere Greenback\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde, getiri fark\u0131 emtia para birimleri (Kiwi gibi) aleyhine, Dolar lehine belirgin \u015fekilde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 8 puan artarak 99,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi yerel ekonomide dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etse de, k\u00fcresel makro dinamikler bu i\u00e7 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca yerel i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dayanarak Kiwi\u2019de uzun pozisyon almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekir; zira d\u0131\u015f ticaret kaynakl\u0131 riskler y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor. Bunun yerine, daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc hedeflerken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bear put spread gibi yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca jeopolitik tansiyonun gev\u015femesi g\u00fcvenli liman risk primlerini azalt\u0131yor; ancak emtia cephesinde momentum eksikli\u011fi Kiwi\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutuyor. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ekonomisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131na dayan\u0131yor ve Global Dairy Trade (GDT) fiyat endeksi tarihsel olarak k\u00fcresel talepteki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n para birimini do\u011frudan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. A\u011fustos sonuna kadar USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f NZD y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlanman\u0131n en rasyonel tercih oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi\u2019de alarm: NZD\/USD 0,5870\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. \u00c7in PMI\u2019lar\u0131 daralma sinyali verirken Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. NZ g\u00fcveni artsa da d\u0131\u015f r\u00fczg\u00e2r sert; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n, opsiyonlarla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50786,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t