{"id":52067,"date":"2026-07-30T21:53:24","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T21:53:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/boe-artan-muhalefete-ragmen-faizi-375te-sabit-tuttu-sonia-vadeli-islemleri-ucuz-goruluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T21:53:24","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T21:53:24","slug":"boe-artan-muhalefete-ragmen-faizi-375te-sabit-tuttu-sonia-vadeli-islemleri-ucuz-goruluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/boe-artan-muhalefete-ragmen-faizi-375te-sabit-tuttu-sonia-vadeli-islemleri-ucuz-goruluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BoE, Artan Muhalefete Ra\u011fmen Faizi %3,75\u2019te Sabit Tuttu; SONIA Vadeli \u0130\u015flemleri Ucuz G\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde Banka Faizi\u2019ni (Bank Rate) %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu. Karar 6\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 3 oyla al\u0131n\u0131rken, hazirandaki 7\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 2\u2019lik oylamaya k\u0131yasla Mann\u2019in \u015fahin kanada ge\u00e7ti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. BoE, para politikas\u0131 raporunda \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo ortaya koyarken; enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n vadeli e\u011frilere (futures curves) g\u00f6re seyretti\u011fi ve ikinci tur etkilerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayanan merkezi projeksiyonda, T\u00dcFE (CPI) enflasyonunun bir y\u0131l sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in %2,6 seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu tahmin, nisanda yay\u0131mlanan \u00fc\u00e7 senaryonun tamam\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda BoE, enflasyon \u00fczerinde ikinci tur etkilerine dair kan\u0131t eksikli\u011fi bulundu\u011funu belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 raporlanarak, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisinin nisanda beklenenden daha iyi bir konumda oldu\u011fu sonucuna var\u0131ld\u0131. Merkezi projeksiyon, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131yla uyumlu \u015fekilde iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n

BoE Karar\u0131 Sonras\u0131 T\u00fcrev Piyasalarda F\u0131rsat<\/h3>\n

Bize g\u00f6re BoE\u2019nin faizi %3,75\u2019te tutma karar\u0131, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in net bir yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlama f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n modelleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 iki ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor olsa da, zay\u0131flayan enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin 2026 ortas\u0131nda %2,2\u2019ye gerilemesiyle, fiyatlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim piyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 bu iki ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u00f6z konusu vadeli kontratlar \u015fu anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferlenmi\u015f durumda. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon tahminleri %2,7\u2019nin alt\u0131na inerken ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla ralli yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Risk Y\u00f6netimi ve Gilt E\u011frisi Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bununla birlikte, 6-3\u2019l\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131 oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131 kurul i\u00e7indeki \u015fahin az\u0131nl\u0131k nedeniyle temkinli kalmak gerekiyor. Bu riski hedge etmek i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) payer opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r. Bu strateji, mevcut %4,2\u2019lik i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yurti\u00e7i verilerin ge\u00e7ici olarak getirileri yukar\u0131 itmesi halinde portf\u00f6yleri korur.<\/p>\n

Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k gilt piyasas\u0131nda e\u011fri dikle\u015fmesi (curve-steepening) stratejilerine de bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentileri gerilerken uzun vadeli getiriler yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n geni\u015flemesi bekleniyor. Bu i\u015flemin \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2026 sonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yo\u011fun tahvil ihra\u00e7 plan\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli getirileri y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu, oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 6-3\u2019e d\u00f6nd\u00fc: Piyasada yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlama m\u0131 var? Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131flarken SONIA long, OTM payer hedge ve 2-10y gilt steepener f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t