ABD hisseleri Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc toparland\u0131 ancak liderlik dard\u0131. Nasdaq 100 (NDX), neredeyse %3\u2019l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 27.950 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015ftan dakikalar sonra 27.200 civar\u0131nda iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA) ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 puan art\u0131\u015fla 51.800 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Microsoft (MSFT) %15 s\u0131\u00e7rarken yar\u0131 iletken kompleksi de e\u015flik etti; g\u00f6sterge \u00e7ip fonu %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Meta Platforms (META), zay\u0131f gelir beklentisi ve ikinci \u00e7eyrek serbest nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda %91\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 %9 geriledi. Nasdaq, dip seviyesinden 700 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde toparland\u0131; ancak seans i\u00e7i zirvesi 28.100\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde kalsa da 28.800 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 700 puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Endeks ayr\u0131ca haziran zirvesi olan 30.750\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerindeki seviyenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 alt\u0131nda; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip ise bu zirvenin %11\u2019den fazla alt\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131\u015fma \u201ca\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k\u201d etkisiyle a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131: Dow, hisse fiyat\u0131ndaki 1 dolarl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 endeks puan\u0131 oynuyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131 bir bile\u015fende %15\u2019lik hareket 300 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde katk\u0131 yapabilirken endeksin kendisi yaln\u0131zca yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 puan y\u00fckseldi. Piyasa geni\u015fli\u011fi zay\u0131ft\u0131; S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 11 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden 5\u2019i art\u0131da olurken a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015ftan k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra y\u00fckselen hisse say\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 243\u2019t\u00fc; bilgi teknolojileri ve iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim s\u0131ras\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 ve %1,3 y\u00fckseldi. Jeopolitik riskler g\u00fcndemde kald\u0131: ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 02:00 GMT civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken Brent yeniden 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yapay zek\u00e2 hedge fonunun kald\u0131ra\u00e7 azalt\u0131m\u0131 ak\u0131mlara eklendi. Tahvil piyasas\u0131 ise ralliye \u201ckar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u201d: Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi 13:08 GMT\u2019de %5,21\u2019e dokundu; yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 baz puan y\u00fckseldi ve 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Vadeli piyasalar 12:40 GMT itibar\u0131yla 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %59,2 ve 28 Ekim\u2019e kadar %88 olarak fiyatlarken, aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar ikinci bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %31,3 g\u00f6sterdi; 2026\u2019daki hi\u00e7bir toplant\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz indirimi fiyatlanmad\u0131. Verilerde \u00e7ekirdek PCE ayl\u0131k %0,1 ile %0,2 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda, y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 ile %3,4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda geldi; man\u015fet PCE ayl\u0131k %0,1 gerilerken y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7\u2019ye inerek %4,1\u2019den gev\u015fedi. GSYH y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %1,5 ile %2,1 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken fiyat endeksi %6,3 ile %3,6 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 197 bin ile 200 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda, 188 binden y\u00fckseldi. Seans sonras\u0131 Amazon, Apple ve Coinbase bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klayacak; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise 12:30 GMT\u2019de ECI %0,8 (beklenti %0,9), 13:45 GMT\u2019de Chicago PMI 56 (beklenti 56,7) ve 14:00 GMT\u2019de Michigan enflasyon beklentileri %4,2 (1 y\u0131l) ve %3,3 (5 y\u0131l) izlenecek. Teknik seviyelerde 28.100\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczeri diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken ard\u0131ndan 28.800 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA takip ediliyor; destekler 27.200 ve 26.750 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA. Dow\u2019un 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131 51.600 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Stoch RSI okumalar\u0131 her iki endekste 20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda; 5 dakikal\u0131k grafikte ise 10\u2019un alt\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc teknoloji kaynakl\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n \u00f6tesine bakmas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeye haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Nasdaq 100\u2019\u00fcn 27.950 civar\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 tehlikeli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dar; hareket neredeyse tamamen Microsoft\u2019un %15\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle beslenirken, daha geni\u015f piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak yaz aylar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen benzer geni\u015flik ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131, sonraki haftalarda endekste ortalama %5 ila %8\u2019lik geri \u00e7ekilmelerin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc oldu.<\/p>\n
28.800 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesini; bear call spread\u2019leri veya put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Endeks bu direnci a\u015famazsa, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedeflerimiz \u00f6nce 27.200 civar\u0131ndaki son dip, ard\u0131ndan 26.750\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019d\u0131r. Bu savunmac\u0131 duru\u015f, Nasdaq i\u00e7in geleneksel olarak y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f ay\u0131 olan A\u011fustos\u2019un tarihsel performans\u0131yla da uyumlu; son 20 y\u0131lda yaz likiditesinin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,1 ila %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin %5,21\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla bu hisse senedi \u201crahatlama rallisini\u201d aktif bi\u00e7imde reddediyor. Bu bask\u0131, son GSYH verilerindeki stagflasyonist sinyallerle de peki\u015fiyor: b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flarken e\u015flik eden fiyat endeksi beklenmedik \u015fekilde %6,3\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Vadeli piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %59,2 olarak fiyatlarken 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda hi\u00e7 indirim \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyor; bu tabloda pahal\u0131 teknoloji hisselerine y\u00fcksek \u00e7arpan \u00f6demek olduk\u00e7a riskli.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7ip ve yaz\u0131l\u0131m rallisinin \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 mekanik nitelikte; yap\u0131sal al\u0131mdan ziyade, birincil arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n (prime broker) zor durumdaki bir yapay zek\u00e2 hedge fonundaki pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmesiyle tetikleniyor. Bu s\u0131rada Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u00fcrerken Brent\u2019in 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, hisse piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rmezden geldi\u011fi kal\u0131c\u0131 bir arz kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon tehdidi olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler, bu ge\u00e7ici likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sona erdi\u011finde olas\u0131 sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in mega-cap teknoloji hisselerinde k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Wall Street\u2019te ralli var ama zemini kaygan: Nasdaq 100 Microsoft\u2019un %15 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla toparland\u0131, geni\u015flik zay\u0131f. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %5,21\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karken 28.800 EMA diren\u00e7; 27.200\/26.750 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50012,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t