EUR\/USD, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerin ABD okumalar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flamayla tezat olu\u015fturmas\u0131yla Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1460 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi GSYH\u2019si 2\u00c7\u2019de \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,4 artarak %0,2\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki %0,2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi; y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise %0,3\u2019ten ve %0,5\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinden %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Almanya \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek %0,1 tahminini geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken, y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 %0,4\u2019ten %0,9\u2019a ivmelendi; Fransa %0,2 \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti. \u0130talya da \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, \u0130spanya %0,6 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde %0,7 \u00e7eyreklik art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de \u00f6nc\u00fc 2\u00c7 GSYH, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %1,5 artarak %2,1\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re yava\u015flad\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek PCE, Haziran\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 y\u00fckselerek %0,2 beklentisinin ve May\u0131s\u2019taki %0,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %3,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e geriledi; man\u015fet PCE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5\u2019ten %0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe d\u00f6nerken, y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %4,1\u2019den %3,7\u2019ye yava\u015flad\u0131. 4 saatlik grafikte parite 1,1513\u2019te; 20 periyotluk SMA olan 1,1407\u2019nin ve 100 periyotluk SMA olan 1,1416\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; destekler 1,1485 ve 1,1476 seviyelerinde yer ald\u0131. RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 71,8 d\u00fczeyindeydi; diren\u00e7 1,1536\u2019da bulunurken, ilave destek 1,1469\u2019dayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile so\u011fuyan ABD ekonomisi aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fan patikalar\u0131n EUR\/USD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi GSYH\u2019si \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken ABD\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131, temel verilerin belirgin bi\u00e7imde Euro lehine oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde benzer b\u00fcy\u00fcme ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemleri, takip eden ayda ortalama %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde EUR\/USD kazanc\u0131yla sonu\u00e7land\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu trendden faydalanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara 1,1550-1,1600 band\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen al\u0131m (bull) call spread stratejisi \u00f6neriyoruz. 1,1500 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p 1,1600 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetimizi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken potansiyel getiriyi maksimize eder. Bu yap\u0131, 71,8 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesindeki RSI\u2019\u0131n ralli devam etmeden \u00f6nce k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir teknik d\u00fczeltme tetiklemesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 da koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Gelir odakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, 1,1400 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu seviye, hem 20 periyotluk SMA olan 1,1407 hem de 100 periyotluk SMA olan 1,1416 taraf\u0131ndan desteklendi\u011fi i\u00e7in g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenlik marj\u0131 sunuyor. Tarihsel geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck testler, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f trendlerinde bu t\u00fcr hareketli ortalama k\u00fcmelerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri %75\u2019in \u00fczerinde bir oranla ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 \u015fekilde geri \u00e7evirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun %3,3\u2019e gerilemesi, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, tarihsel olarak dolar\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak sermayenin daha y\u00fcksek getirili Euro\u2019ya y\u00f6nelmesine neden oluyor. Piyasa bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in bu opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 erken olu\u015fturmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz Euro rallisi: Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc GSYH (%0,4) ve ABD\u2019de yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/PCE, EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1460\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm pozitif; 1,1550-1,1600 bull call spread, 1,1400 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t