Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi ve 29 Temmuz\u2019da, 17 Haziran\u2019daki metinle neredeyse birebir ayn\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yay\u0131mlad\u0131; yaln\u0131zca bir fiil de\u011fi\u015ftirildi ve \u00fc\u00e7 muhalifi isimlendiren 35 kelimelik bir paragraf eklendi. Haziran metni 114 kelimeydi, Temmuz versiyonu 115 kelimeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; uygulama notu ise de\u011fi\u015fmeden kald\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, gecelik ters repo (ON RRP) i\u015flemlerinde kar\u015f\u0131 taraf ba\u015f\u0131na 160 milyar dolarl\u0131k tavan korunurken, yeterli rezerv seviyesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek amac\u0131yla Hazine bonosu al\u0131mlar\u0131na devam edilece\u011fi teyit edildi. Oylama 12-0\u2019dan 9-3\u2019e d\u00f6nd\u00fc; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari ve Lorie Logan \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tercih etti. Ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde \u00fc\u00e7 muhalif oy, Eyl\u00fcl 2016\u2019dan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. A\u00e7\u0131klama ayr\u0131ca, Haziran\u2019da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 %61,5\u2019e gerilemesine ra\u011fmen \u201ci\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda denge\u201d vurgusunu yineledi; yakla\u015f\u0131k 720 bin ki\u015finin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, 57 binlik tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi. Metin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatmalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol\u00fcn %7\u2019den fazla y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir g\u00fcnde yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 yak\u0131n vadeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini bir miktar yumu\u015fatt\u0131: CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar en az bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, Per\u015fembe 12:40 GMT itibar\u0131yla %59,2\u2019ye gerilerken 17 Temmuz\u2019da %64,1 seviyesindeydi. 28 Ekim\u2019e kadar olas\u0131l\u0131k %88,0\u2019da kal\u0131rken, ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 9 Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Daha ileride, Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar iki art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %22,5\u2019ten %31,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Uzun vadeli faizler yukar\u0131 itti; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi 13:08 GMT\u2019de %5,21 ile seans i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 baz puan artarak 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dow Jones \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 d\u00fc\u015ferken, bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izleyen bir saat i\u00e7inde \u00f6\u011fleden sonraki zirvesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 700 puan geri \u00e7ekildi. Y\u00f6netim Kurulu, IORB\u2019yi %3,65\u2019te ve birincil kredi faizini %3,75\u2019te tutma karar\u0131n\u0131 oybirli\u011fiyle ald\u0131. Ko\u015fullu patika, 2026\u2019daki kalan t\u00fcm toplant\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir hedef aral\u0131\u011fa %0,0 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7erken, 28 Temmuz 2027\u2019de %0,3 ile pozitif b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7ti ve Ekim 2027\u2019de %1,6 ile zirve yapt\u0131; bir sonraki ana d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 27\u201329 A\u011fustos\u2019taki Jackson Hole.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentileri ile uzun vadeli getiriler aras\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131lan fark kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etmemiz gerekiyor. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisinin 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,21\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek bir risk primi talep etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Artan duration riskinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak ay\u0131 dikle\u015fmesinin (bear steepener) s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
27\u201329 A\u011fustos\u2019taki Jackson Hole sempozyumu, piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck kataliz\u00f6r olacak. Resm\u00ee Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle donmu\u015f hale geldi\u011finden, t\u00fcm politika sinyalleri b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla do\u011frudan ba\u015fkan\u0131n canl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan gelecek. Podyumdan \u00e7\u0131kan, \u00f6nceden filtrelenmemi\u015f her kelimeye piyasan\u0131n as\u0131lmas\u0131yla ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli SOFR straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 trader\u2019lar \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fahin muhalefeti ilk etapta politika zafiyeti i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6rse de, tarih farkl\u0131 bir tablo anlat\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl 2016\u2019da benzer bir \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ayr\u0131\u015fma, sonraki aylarda faizlerin istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftu. Mevcut olas\u0131l\u0131k tablolar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli ihtimali %59,2\u2019ye indirmi\u015f olmas\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00fcrpriz bir Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ucuz, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) faiz call opsiyonlar\u0131 edinerek korunmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika isteyen muhalif \u015fahinler i\u00e7in bilan\u00e7o dinamiklerini gizli bir bas\u0131n\u00e7 valfi olarak izlememiz gerekiyor. Niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmada (QT) ya da rezerv sa\u011flanmas\u0131nda sessiz de\u011fi\u015fimler, swap spread\u2019lerini do\u011frudan etkileyecektir. A\u011fustos\u2019taki sakin d\u00f6nem bitmeden \u00f6nce g\u00f6reli de\u011fer (relative value) i\u015flemleri kurarak, radar alt\u0131nda kalan bu likidite hareketinden faydalanabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed faizleri pas ge\u00e7ti ama \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fahin muhalefetle mesaj sertle\u015fti: metin neredeyse ayn\u0131, oy 9-3. Piyasa Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %59\u2019a indirdi; 30Y getiri %5,21\u2019e f\u0131rlad\u0131\u2014Jackson Hole \u00f6ncesi ay\u0131 dikle\u015fmesi\/volatilite f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t