AUD\/JPY, Japon Yeni\u2019nin yen \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda sert \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Bu hareket, USD\/JPY\u2019nin ay ba\u015f\u0131nda 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00c7apraz, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 111,70 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,75 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 3 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini kaydetti. USD\/JPY, yakla\u015f\u0131k 480 pip d\u00fc\u015ferek 160 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi. Tokyo\u2019dan bir teyit gelmezken, yetkililer a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kur hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; Reuters ise yetkililerin \u00f6nceden uyar\u0131 yapmadan m\u00fcdahaleyi de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131 ile Tokyo T\u00dcFE ve \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 verilerine \u00e7evrildi. BoJ\u2019un politika faizini %1,00\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131 genel beklenti. Avustralya Dolar\u0131 ise zay\u0131f enflasyon verileri sonras\u0131 zaten bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131: Haziran T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 gerileyerek %0,2 art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda enflasyon %4,0\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e gerileyerek, A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Yen paritelerinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira ani Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmeti m\u00fcdahaleleri s\u00fcrekli bir risk unsuru olmaya devam ediyor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin son y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinden 160 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na sert \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck ve duyurulmam\u0131\u015f fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tarihsel verileri, ilkbahar sonundaki benzer m\u00fcdahalelerde rekor d\u00fczeyde 9,8 trilyon yen (62 milyar dolar) harcand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da Tokyo\u2019nun yeniden uyar\u0131s\u0131z \u015fekilde devreye girmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
AUD\/JPY\u2019de ise, 111,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hedefleyen put opsiyonlar\u0131 veya bear put spread gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Avustralya\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun son olarak %3,8\u2019e gerilemesi, RBA\u2019n\u0131n ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131 ile BoJ\u2019un yakla\u015fan politika de\u011fi\u015fimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilave tasfiyelere kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, BoJ\u2019un bir sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tokyo T\u00dcFE verisi ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekiyor. D\u00f6viz opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmesi, kurumsal oyuncular\u0131n pop\u00fcler Yen carry trade\u2019inde daha derin bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye kar\u015f\u0131 aktif \u015fekilde korunma (hedge) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Mevcut uzun AUD\/JPY pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-durdur (stop-loss) seviyeleri korunmas\u0131n\u0131 ve h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fen faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz swaplar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda sert g\u00fc\u00e7lenme AUD\/JPY\u2019yi 111,70\u2019e \u00e7ekti; USD\/JPY 160 alt\u0131na indi, m\u00fcdahale spek\u00fclasyonu artt\u0131. BoJ karar\u0131, Tokyo T\u00dcFE kritik. Zay\u0131f Avustralya enflasyonu RBA art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi; opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t