{"id":52057,"date":"2026-07-30T18:51:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T18:51:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/cinin-2-ceyrek-gsyhsi-hedefin-altinda-kaldi-ihracat-buyumeyi-desteklerken-renminbi-uzerindeki-baski-suruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T18:51:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T18:51:59","slug":"cinin-2-ceyrek-gsyhsi-hedefin-altinda-kaldi-ihracat-buyumeyi-desteklerken-renminbi-uzerindeki-baski-suruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/cinin-2-ceyrek-gsyhsi-hedefin-altinda-kaldi-ihracat-buyumeyi-desteklerken-renminbi-uzerindeki-baski-suruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in\u2019in 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019si hedefin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklerken renminbi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in ekonomisi, resmi verilere g\u00f6re 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek h\u00fck\u00fcmetin %4,5\u2013%5 hedefinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Sapma, daha zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talebe ba\u011flan\u0131rken; emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki bask\u0131, temkinli maliye politikas\u0131 ve nisan-may\u0131s d\u00f6nemindeki ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkisiyle daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131. Sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 (FAI) verileri, kamu harcamalar\u0131ndaki yava\u015f ilerlemeyi yans\u0131tt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Daha g\u00fcncel g\u00f6stergeler, ko\u015fullar\u0131n hazirana do\u011fru iyile\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret etti; perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin ayl\u0131k veriler hafif bir toparlanmay\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Temmuzda Politb\u00fcro acil bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sinyali vermedi. Net ihracat genel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek sa\u011flarken, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir mali geni\u015flemenin resmi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yeniden %4,5\u2013%5 band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Renminbi, Emtialar ve Kur Stratejileri \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n

Bize g\u00f6re ikinci \u00e7eyrekteki %4,3\u2019l\u00fck GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, \u00c7in\u2019de toparlanman\u0131n h\u00e2len yava\u015f seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da Renminbi\u2019yi ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutacakt\u0131r. USD\/CNY kuru h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 7,25\u20137,30 band\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CNY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelidir. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc net ihracat ekonomiyi desteklemeye devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in sert bir kur \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklemiyoruz; bu da bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) opsiyon stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Temkinli mali harcamalar ve zay\u0131f emlak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, bak\u0131r ve demir cevheri gibi sanayi emtialar\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. K\u00fcresel bak\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131 zaten zay\u0131f \u00c7in talebinin etkisini hissederken, bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde yak\u0131n vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 bir kamu te\u015fviki devreye girmeden \u00f6nce i\u00e7 piyasadaki durgunluktan faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n

Hisse Senedi Piyasas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Politb\u00fcro\u2019nun temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcyle sonu\u00e7lanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, hisse piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 tetikleyecek kataliz\u00f6r eksik. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131nda prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla FTSE China A50 endeksi ve Hang Seng Endeksi\u2019nde demir kondor gibi delta-n\u00f6tr stratejilerle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00c7in\u2019e maruz borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF) ucuz koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak da ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir korunma y\u00f6ntemidir.<\/p>\n

Pekin\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %4,5\u2013%5 hedefine yeniden yakla\u015ft\u0131rma \u00e7abas\u0131yla \u00e7eyre\u011fin ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir mali destek ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olunmal\u0131. Tarihsel olarak, kamu kredilerindeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli enjeksiyonlar dahi \u00c7in hisselerinde ve emtia vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ani ve sert rallileri tetikleyebilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, yerel y\u00f6netim tahvili ihra\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda metallere ve \u00c7in teknoloji hisselerine y\u00f6nelik uzun al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f yapmak i\u00e7in cephane haz\u0131r tutmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in\u2019in 2\u00c726 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %4,3\u2019te kald\u0131: i\u00e7 talep ve emlak bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. RMB zay\u0131f, USD\/CNY bant. Emtialarda put, hisselerde demir kondor; s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 te\u015fvik rallisi riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t