Sterlin, Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sert gerileyerek GBP\/JPY\u2019yi 218,00 civar\u0131ndan 213,20 seviyelerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve pariteyi yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,4 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; Yen\u2019in piyasa genelinde keskin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi etkili oldu. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131; ancak karar \u015fahin tonda 6\u20133 oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla al\u0131nd\u0131: \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla faizin %4,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. BoE, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonunun haziranda %2,6\u2019ya geriledi\u011fini belirtirken, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Yen\u2019deki hareket, USD\/JPY\u2019yi de 160,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti. Parite daha \u00f6nce 164,00 civar\u0131nda 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoF) Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla devreye girdi\u011fine y\u00f6nelik m\u00fcdahale spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. 4 saatlik grafikte GBP\/JPY 213,06 seviyesindeydi; 20 periyotluk SMA olan 217,61\u2019in ve 100 periyotluk SMA olan 217,87\u2019nin alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 15\u2019e geriledi. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 213,96, 215,50 ve 217,40 olarak; destek ise 214,70 olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u015e\u00fcpheli Japon Yeni m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/JPY paritelerinde artan volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, 2024\u2019teki 9,8 trilyon yenlik b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli savunma gibi Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinin k\u0131sa vadede a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanmalar tetikledi\u011fini, ancak uzun vadeli makroekonomik trendleri kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tersine \u00e7evirmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 213,20 band\u0131na do\u011fru gelen ani %2,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu sert oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi uzun volatilite opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin faizi %3,75\u2019te tutarken 6-3 ile beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fahin bir oylama ortaya koydu\u011funu da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak gerekiyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu \u015fu anda %2,6 seviyesindeyken enerji fiyat\u0131 riskleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc; bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili Yen\u2019e k\u0131yasla Sterlin\u2019in temel deste\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. Bu para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 yeni GBP\/JPY d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin iskontolu uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 almak i\u00e7in cazip f\u0131rsatlar sunabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta, 4 saatlik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 15 gibi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine sert \u015fekilde gerileyerek ilk sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131ra yakla\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bununla birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 213,96 civar\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n direncin olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma denemelerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Knock-out opsiyonlar gibi y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131lar\u0131na girmeden \u00f6nce 214,70 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde net bir istikrar g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini beklemeyi tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ani hamlelerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu u\u00e7 \u201cgap\u201d riski, ciddi kayma (slippage) yaratabilece\u011finden, bu a\u015famada standart spot veya vadeli i\u015flemlerdeki stop-loss kullan\u0131m\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle \u00f6neriyoruz. Bunun yerine, olas\u0131 yeni s\u00fcrpriz m\u00fcdahalelere kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in riskin ba\u015ftan tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131 opsiyon spread\u2019lerine odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131. Tokyo\u2019dan gelecek resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,00 seviyesinin daha da alt\u0131na itilmesi, GBP\/JPY\u2019yi muhtemelen daha derin \u201cde\u011fer\u201d b\u00f6lgesine s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 Sterlin\u2019i vurdu: GBP\/JPY 218\u2019den 213,20\u2019ye %2,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, USD\/JPY 160 alt\u0131na indi. BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te tuttu; 6-3 \u015fahin oy. M\u00fcdahale spek\u00fclasyonu, RSI 15; volatilite i\u00e7in straddle\/opsiyon spread \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t