ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri, 24 Temmuz tarihli a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re haftal\u0131k ABD do\u011fal gaz depolamas\u0131nda 28 milyar fit k\u00fcp (Bcf) de\u011fi\u015fim oldu\u011funu ve piyasa beklentisi olan 35 Bcf\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu sapma, tahminlere k\u0131yasla beklenenden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son EIA raporunun do\u011fal gaz depo enjeksiyonunun yaln\u0131zca 28 Bcf oldu\u011funu ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 35 Bcf\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle net bir bo\u011fa sinyali g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalan bu enjeksiyon, \u00fclke genelindeki yo\u011fun yaz s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n elektrik \u00fcretiminde do\u011fal gaz kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (power burn) art\u0131rmas\u0131yla muhtemelen daha s\u0131k\u0131 piyasa dengelerine i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, temmuz sonundaki art\u0131\u015flar beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa k\u0131\u015fa daha ince bir tamponla girilece\u011fini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde an\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu ivmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli Henry Hub do\u011fal gaz al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almas\u0131n\u0131 veya eyl\u00fcl vadeli kontratlarda uzun (long) pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. A\u011fustosta s\u0131caklar\u0131n genellikle y\u00fcksek seyretmesi nedeniyle klima talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131r; bu da yak\u0131n vade fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bu t\u00fcr depolama a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas hale getirir. S\u0131k\u0131 yaz piyasalar\u0131nda benzer tarihsel a\u00e7\u0131klar, a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 izleyen haftalarda yak\u0131n vade fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 %5 ila %10 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, k\u0131\u015f risk primleri erken fiyatlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a takvim spread\u2019lerine, \u00f6zellikle Ekim\u2013Ocak spread\u2019ine odaklanmak gerekiyor. ABD kuru gaz \u00fcretimi yatay kal\u0131r ve bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enjeksiyon h\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131 telafi edemezse, mevcut stoklar ile be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama aras\u0131ndaki fark geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. Olas\u0131 bir yaz sonu rallisine pozisyon al\u0131rken riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck power burn verilerinin ve LNG ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7in besleme gaz\u0131 (feed gas) ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EIA verisi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131: ABD do\u011fal gaz depolama art\u0131\u015f\u0131 28 Bcf\u2019de kald\u0131, 35 Bcf beklentisini ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Bu bo\u011fa sinyali; call, uzun Eyl\u00fcl ve Ekim\u2013Ocak spread stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49979,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t