Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 toparland\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Warsh, kat\u0131 veri ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan uzakla\u015f\u0131rken bir enflasyon \u015fokunu \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelmeye\u201d istekli olundu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. TD Securities, sonraki yeniden fiyatlaman\u0131n beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 eyl\u00fclden aral\u0131\u011fa \u00f6teledi\u011fini, ancak bu kayman\u0131n metal i\u00e7in daha geni\u015f \u00e7aptaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini belirtti. Banka, ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik kal\u0131nt\u0131 beklentilerin de\u011ferli metaller genelinde anlaml\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re ana k\u0131s\u0131t pozisyonlanma olmaya devam ediyor. Kurum, yerle\u015fik Emtia \u0130\u015flem Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 (CTA) k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, sadece \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u201cshort kapanma\u201d tetiklenmesi i\u00e7in bile ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine bir hareket gerektirdi\u011fini; ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.300 dolar civar\u0131ndaki seviyelerin ise kayda de\u011fer net uzun pozisyon \u00fcretebilecek senaryolarla ili\u015fkilendirildi\u011fini ifade etti. Firman\u0131n fiyatlama sim\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 bu b\u00f6lgede asimetrik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyele i\u015faret etse de, y\u00fckseli\u015flerin CTA tetik seviyelerine ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011funu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasada i\u015flem yapanlara, FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fin pe\u015finden ko\u015fmamalar\u0131 ve temkinli kalmalar\u0131 \u00f6nerilir. Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin eyl\u00fclden aral\u0131\u011fa \u00f6telenmesi orta vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi, yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlayan (capped-upside) opsiyon stratejilerinin tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck algoritmik fonlar ve emtia i\u015flem dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 (CTA) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi zor, \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sa pozisyonlar ta\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere alt\u0131n\u0131n, minimal short kapanmay\u0131 zorlamak i\u00e7in dahi ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131; bu oyuncular\u0131n net al\u0131c\u0131ya d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in ise ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 gerekiyor. Fiyatlar\u0131n bu y\u00fcksek e\u015fiklerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimizden, \u015fu a\u015famada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya oynama fikri fazla risk ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, faizlerin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde alt\u0131n zorlanma e\u011filiminde; 2022 sonlar\u0131nda y\u00fckselen getirilerin fiyatlar\u0131 ons ba\u015f\u0131na 1.620 dolar civar\u0131na itti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu gibi. Son y\u0131llarda merkez bankalar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131yla piyasay\u0131 desteklemi\u015f olsa da, makro kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam ediyor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.200 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayan yatay bant (range-bound) stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n, FOMC sonras\u0131 nefes ald\u0131; ancak TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re pozisyonlanma freni \u00e7ekiyor. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi aral\u0131\u011fa \u00f6telenirken, 4.200\u20134.300 dolar CTA e\u015fikleri a\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t