USD\/JPY, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 162,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, Fed\u2019in politikay\u0131 sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanan yeni ABD verilerinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla %0,31 geriledi. ABD GSYH\u2019si ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %1,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; bu oran %2,1\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, ilk \u00e7eyrekteki %2,1 seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. BEA, yava\u015flamay\u0131 kamu harcamalar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ile ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki zay\u0131flamaya ba\u011flarken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n bunu k\u0131smen dengeledi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri de geriledi. PCE Fiyat Endeksi haziranda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %4,1\u2019den %3,7\u2019ye indi. \u00c7ekirdek PCE ise beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e geriledi. Fed, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu; \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye ise derhal faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kar\u015f\u0131 oy kulland\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n dolar, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Odak Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131na kay\u0131yor; faizlerin %1\u2019de sabit kalmas\u0131 beklenirken piyasalar, g\u00fcncellenen projeksiyonlar ile Ba\u015fkan Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na (Ekim\u2013Aral\u0131k aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 ar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 162,90 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ve ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir kaymaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun %3,3\u2019e gerilemesi ve temkinli bir Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumunun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir ABD Dolar\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan BoJ karar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi halinde, kritik bir oynakl\u0131k tetikleyicisi. Tarihsel olarak ABD\u2013Japonya faiz fark\u0131 daralmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/JPY\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki \u015fahin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimlerinde izlenen 1.000 piplik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler buna \u00f6rnek. Bu olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011ferlendirmek ve riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k, bu t\u00fcr b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde genellikle s\u0131\u00e7rar; yo\u011fun \u015fekilde fiyatlanan politika d\u00f6nemlerinde bir haftal\u0131k vadelerde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n do\u011frudan opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 nedeniyle prim maliyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread stratejisini tercih ediyoruz. Bu strateji, 158,00 destek seviyesine do\u011fru bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften getiri elde etmeyi sa\u011flarken BoJ\u2019un beklenenden daha \u201csessiz\u201d kalmas\u0131 durumunda sermayeyi korur.<\/p>\n
Yava\u015flayan ABD makro verileri, \u00f6zellikle t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki gerileme, dolara y\u00f6nelik negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Fed\u2019in artan siyasi bask\u0131 ve so\u011fuyan ekonomi ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, bundan sonra gelecek zay\u0131f verilerin Hazine tahvili getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi muhtemel. USD\/JPY\u2019de 164,00 seviyesine do\u011fru g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek ge\u00e7ici, refleks y\u00fckseli\u015flerin; k\u0131sa pozisyon in\u015fa etmek i\u00e7in son derece elveri\u015fli giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: USD\/JPY 162,90\u2019da bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flarken PCE geriledi, dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131. BoJ \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor; put opsiyonu\/ay\u0131 put spread ile 158 hedefli korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t