ABD dolar\u0131, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonda \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toparlanmakta zorlan\u0131yor; Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n enflasyon vurgusu piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye yetmedi. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, piyasalar\u0131n temmuzda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin elde kalan %30 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 geri almas\u0131yla tetiklendi. Bu s\u0131rada ABD getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fti: K\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerinin gerilemesi \u00f6n ucu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, daha uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerindeki art\u0131\u015f uzun ucu yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin deste\u011fiyle tahvil getirileri e\u011fri genelinde daha y\u00fcksek seyrederken, Microsoft\u2019un g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ABD hisse vadeli i\u015flemleri hafif art\u0131da.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn, jeopolitik gerilimlerde kontroll\u00fc t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n bir tur daha ya\u015fanmas\u0131yla uyumlu \u015fekilde 70-100 dolar band\u0131nda yatay kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Faizlerdeki yeniden fiyatlama, getiriler t\u0131rmansa bile dolar\u0131 zay\u0131f b\u0131rakt\u0131; e\u011frideki hareket, yak\u0131n vadeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma riskinden uzakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131p daha uzun vadelerde daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon telafisine y\u00f6nelindi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Haberde, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131n\u0131n yard\u0131m\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in son karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 101,50 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa dolar pozisyonlar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u015eahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalara ra\u011fmen paritenin toparlanamamas\u0131, al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n kurudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD getiri e\u011frisindeki sert dikle\u015fme \u2014 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %4,10\u2019a gerilerken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n %4,55\u2019e y\u00f6nelmesi \u2014 faiz stratejistleri i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bu e\u011filimin, dikle\u015fmeyi hedefleyen (curve-steepener) opsiyonlar veya spreadin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan faiz swaplar\u0131 \u00fczerinden i\u015flem edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in kredibilitesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer d\u00f6nemlerde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek vade primi talep etmesiyle uzun vadeli getiriler h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Enerji taraf\u0131nda, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar civar\u0131nda konsolide olmas\u0131, bekledi\u011fimiz 70-100 dolar band\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kontroll\u00fc kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, d\u00fczenli prim geliri i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak (out-of-the-money) opsiyonlar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde iron condor stratejisinin a\u011fustos i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir se\u00e7enek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda ise Microsoft gibi mega \u00f6l\u00e7ekli teknoloji \u015firketlerinden gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olar \u2014 \u015firketin k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %16 gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u2014 S&P 500\u2019\u00fc diren\u00e7li tutuyor. Bu teknoloji kaynakl\u0131 tamponun piyasa geneline yay\u0131labilecek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread\u2019leri (bull put spreads) stratejisini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, daha geni\u015f makro tablo netle\u015firken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n prim geliri elde etmesine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in \u015fahin \u201cpas\u201d\u0131na ra\u011fmen dolar tutunam\u0131yor: Temmuz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %30\u2019a inince DXY 101,50 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fti, Brent 70-100 band\u0131nda; Microsoft bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 vadelileri destekledi, opsiyon f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t