Meksika ekonomisi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc ve %1,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Sonu\u00e7, d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin \u00fczerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir faaliyete i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz, k\u0131sa vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir ve politika ile piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan makro zemini \u015fekillendirir. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile beklentiler aras\u0131ndaki 0,7 puanl\u0131k farkla birlikte, ivmenin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131p ta\u015f\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki projeksiyonlarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sundu\u011fu g\u00fcndeme gelecektir.<\/p>\n\n
Meksika\u2019n\u0131n 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019sinin %1,5\u2019lik tahmine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %2,2 ile beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi, Meksika Pesosu (MXN) i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede do\u011frudan bir y\u00fckseli\u015f kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, Meksika Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Banxico) enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ayda kurdaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla USD\/MXN sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda, bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrprizi faiz indirimi beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Tarihsel e\u011filimlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi son y\u0131llarda %11 civar\u0131nda seyretmi\u015fti ve bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri seti, yak\u0131n vadede bir indirimi olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimalli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu \u015fahin makro arka plan kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda getirilerin y\u00fckselme potansiyeli bulundu\u011fundan, i\u015flemcilere 28 g\u00fcnl\u00fck TIIE swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz \u00f6denmesi (pay fixed) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438isyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda ise daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ekonomi, yerel \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyerek Mexbol IPC endeksinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip hale getirebilir. Ancak egemen tahviller (Mbonos) daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faizin bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilece\u011finden, bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma yapmak ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir defansif hamle olacakt\u0131r. Bu stratejilerin birlikte kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, hem para birimindeki de\u011ferlenmeden hem de getiri e\u011frisindeki kaymadan azami fayda sa\u011flamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Meksika 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019si %2,2 ile beklentiyi 0,7 puan a\u015ft\u0131: Peso ve faiz cephesinde s\u00fcrpriz r\u00fczg\u00e2r! Banxico\u2019nun \u015fahinli\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir; USD\/MXN put, TIIE pay-fixed ve IPC call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t