Avrupa hisseleri y\u00fckseli\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve \u00e7ok say\u0131da beklenti\/guidance y\u00fckseltmesi, Fed\u2019in 3,50\u20133,75% hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 9\u20133 oyla \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci toplant\u0131da sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan artan faiz bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 dengeledi ve AB endeksleri 0,2\u20131,3% aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Faizler h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatland\u0131: Bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 bp y\u00fckseldi; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi 5,24% ile 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund faizi iki ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund 3,17%, Fransa 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k OAT 3,97%, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Gilt 5,03%, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB 2,78% olurken DXY 0,1% y\u00fckseldi. BoE karar\u0131 beklenirken Bank Rate\u2019in 3,75%\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 ve 7\u20132 oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu; BoJ\u2019un da hedef faizini 1,00%\u2019de tutmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Piyasalar jeopoliti\u011fi de izledi: ABD\u2019nin IRGC hedeflerine onlarca sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a 400 roketatar g\u00f6nderdi\u011fine dair haberler ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Kyiv\u2019e sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131; bir f\u00fczenin Polonya\u2019daki NATO topra\u011f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn bildirildi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 bilan\u00e7olar ve yapay zek\u00e2 CapEx\u2019i olmaya devam etti: Meta, serbest nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (FCF) d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne gerilemesiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k 8% d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Microsoft, bulut gelirinin 100 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla kapan\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 i\u015flemlerde 9% y\u00fckseldi; Qualcomm yakla\u015f\u0131k 5% geriledi. Samsung 2028\u2019e kadar bellek taraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ederken HBM4 gelirinin gelecek \u00e7eyrekte \u00fc\u00e7 kattan fazla artmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini ve kapasitenin 60\u201370%\u2019inin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle kilitlendi\u011fini belirtti; Microsoft ise bu \u00e7eyrekte 31 yeni veri merkezi kurulumuna i\u015faret ederek 2026 CapEx\u2019inin yakla\u015f\u0131k 175 milyar dolar seviyesinde oldu\u011funu, Azure b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 45% oldu\u011funu ve ticari RPO\u2019nun 84% art\u0131\u015fla 678 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Avrupa\u2019da Shell, 2\u00c7 d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 9,8 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve 3 milyar dolarl\u0131k geri al\u0131m duyurdu; SocGen 1,5 milyar avroluk geri al\u0131m, BBVA 2,0 milyar avroluk geri al\u0131m ba\u015flatt\u0131; BMW ise 8 bin ki\u015filik i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 teyit etti. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca endeksler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ancak genel olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc (FTSE +0,53% ile 10.966,75; DAX +0,13% ile 25.483,07; CAC 40 +0,91% ile 8.484,76; S&P 500 vadeli +0,30%). Brent 0,4% ve WTI 0,2% gerilerken; BTC 0,5% ve ETH 0,3% d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Makro verilerde Euro B\u00f6lgesi 2\u00c7 GSYH 0,4% \u00e7\/\u00e7 ve 1,0% y\/y gelirken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u015fsizlik 6,3% oldu; \u0130spanya T\u00dcFE 3,5% y\/y ve \u00e7ekirdek 3,0% y\/y; Almanya 2\u00c7 GSYH 0,2% \u00e7\/\u00e7 ve 0,9% y\/y olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faizleri 3,50\u20133,75% band\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131na ve \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fahin muhalifin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 istemesine kar\u015f\u0131n, tahvil getirileri \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere do\u011fru h\u0131zla y\u00fckseliyor. \u00d6zellikle 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirilerin yak\u0131n zamanda 5,24% ile 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine temas etmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Hazine tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla daha dik bir getiri e\u011frisi senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, e\u011frinin uzun ucunda bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketlerin sabit getirili tarafta volatiliteyi s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir i\u015flem haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Yapay zek\u00e2 sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n (CapEx) getirisindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fma, hisse senedi t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda son derece se\u00e7ici bir yakla\u015f\u0131m gerektiriyor. Microsoft\u2019un bulut geliri 100 milyar dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015farken, Meta\u2019n\u0131n agresif harcamalar\u0131 serbest nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131; hisse 8% gerileyerek yapay zek\u00e2 d\u00f6neminde t\u00fcm teknoloji devlerinin ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gelir yaratamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez z\u0131mni volatilite dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan teknoloji bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yak\u0131n vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika g\u00fcncellemesi beklenirken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kur volatilitesinin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Sterlinin 1,3375 seviyesinde daha zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi ve USD\/JPY\u2019nin 163,50 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelebilecek ani s\u00fcrprizlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in bu paritelerde long strangle stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Tarihsel olarak, bug\u00fcn g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz t\u00fcrden s\u00fcrpriz oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131 (s\u0131k\u0131\/\u00e7eki\u015fmeli kararlar) G10 kurlar\u0131nda sert k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerini tetikleyebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler de, Rus sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Polonya yak\u0131nlar\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu\u2019da yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlemesinin ard\u0131ndan art\u0131yor. Brent petrolde k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa da, bu y\u00fcksek hassasiyetli b\u00f6lgelerde olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla aksatabilir. Daha geni\u015f hisse portf\u00f6yleri i\u00e7in ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 ve havac\u0131l\u0131k-savunma sekt\u00f6r\u00fc endeksleri \u00fczerinden korunma \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: Fed sabit tuttu ama uzun faizler zirveye ko\u015ftu. Avrupa bilan\u00e7olarla y\u00fckseldi. Yapay zek\u00e2 CapEx ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; straddle\/put\/strangle ve petrolde OTM call ile korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t