Fed, faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; ancak Ba\u015fkan Warsh, FOMC karar\u0131na ili\u015fkin net bir gerek\u00e7e ortaya koymadan yakla\u015f\u0131k 45 dakika konu\u015ftu. Bu belirsizlik, ABD Hazine tahvili piyasas\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli taraf\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 zamana denk geldi; getiri e\u011frisi daha dikle\u015firken ABD dolar\u0131 geriledi. 2s10s spread\u2019i ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti; piyasan\u0131n dolar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz okudu\u011fu hareketi peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n
Tart\u0131\u015fmalar, Fed\u2019in bilan\u00e7osunun sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 te\u015fvikin derecesine de kayd\u0131; bilan\u00e7onun b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir ayarlaman\u0131n, daha \u00f6nce fiyatlanandan daha erken gelebilece\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Trump, bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 sona ererken \u201cWarsh daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizleri g\u00f6rmek ister\u201d diyerek tabloyu daha da karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; siyasi etki endi\u015felerini ve FOMC i\u00e7inde Guvern\u00f6rler Kurulu ile b\u00f6lgesel Fed ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fma olabilece\u011fine dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 besledi. Enflasyon beklentileri sert y\u00fckselirken, s\u00fcre\u00e7 Fed\u2019in kredibilitesini sorgulat\u0131r hale getirdi ve dolar\u0131n daha da de\u011fer kaybetmesi riskini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemlerle ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY) belirgin bi\u00e7imde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. DXY\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemde 100,50 seviyesine do\u011fru sarkmas\u0131 ve yurt i\u00e7i enflasyon beklentilerinin yeniden %3\u2019e yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla, dolar\u0131n euro ve Japon yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasan\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadele taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fc aktif bi\u00e7imde sorgulamas\u0131 nedeniyle dolar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymet opsiyonlar\u0131nda ise ABD Hazine getiri e\u011frisinde daha fazla dikle\u015fmeye (steepening) oynanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana en sert art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fayan bu geni\u015fleyen makastan faydalanmak i\u00e7in 2s10s spread opsiyonlar\u0131na veya Hazine vadeli i\u015flemlerinde takvim spreadlerine bakabilir. Tarihsel olarak piyasa Fed\u2019in \u201ce\u011frinin gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d \u015f\u00fcphesine kap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun vadeli getiriler k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerden \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselir; bu da bear-steepener stratejilerini y\u00fcksek getirili hale getirir.<\/p>\n\n
Kur de\u011fer kayb\u0131na ve para politikas\u0131na siyasi m\u00fcdahale alg\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri ve al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda da \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Alt\u0131n bu y\u0131l ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.400 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde konsolide oldu ve Fed kredibilitesine y\u00f6nelik bu ani darbe, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6r sunuyor. Alt\u0131nda at-the-money\u2019a yak\u0131n al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentilerinin getirdi\u011fi yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalarken riski s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutmaya imkan verir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed faizi sabit tuttu ama Warsh\u2019\u0131n belirsiz mesajlar\u0131 uzun vadeli tahvillerde sat\u0131\u015f, e\u011fride sert dikle\u015fme ve dolarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f getirdi. Strateji: DXY short\/put, 2s10s steepener, alt\u0131n long\/call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t