\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE), \u201cS\u00fcper Per\u015fembe\u201d olarak an\u0131lan toplant\u0131da Bank Rate\u2019i \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci kez %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Politika metni, Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu ve toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 11:00 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlanacak; ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey 11:30 GMT\u2019de konu\u015facak. Piyasalar, MPC i\u00e7indeki oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (yeniden 7-2 bekleniyor) ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n temmuzda toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcncellenecek enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini izliyor. Son veriler, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin haziranda may\u0131staki %2,8\u2019den %2,6\u2019ya geriledi\u011fini ve %2,7 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; i\u015fsizlik may\u0131sa kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayda %4,9\u2019da (beklenti %5) sabit kal\u0131rken, ikramiyeler dahil \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %4,5 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 %4,3\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131. Reuters anketine g\u00f6re 70 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n 58\u2019i faizin 2026 boyunca %3,75\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, swap e\u011frisi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda faizin 75 baz puan artarak %4,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD 1,3300 civar\u0131nda 4 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Sabit bir mesaj 1,3250 deste\u011fini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir; daha \u015fahin bir sinyal ise oda\u011f\u0131 1,3500\u2019e kayd\u0131rabilir. Parite, 1,3360\u20131,3400 band\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen 50, 21, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken RSI 43\u2019e yak\u0131n. Diren\u00e7 1,3362 ve 1,3373\u2019te; destek 1,3250\u2019de ve ard\u0131ndan 24 Haziran dibi 1,3140\u2019ta bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015fan \u201cS\u00fcper Per\u015fembe\u201d toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde sterlin ve faiz piyasalar\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131k olarak pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Swap piyasalar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131lda 75 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlarken, ekonomistlerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu faizin %3,75\u2019te yatay kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu tablo SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde belirgin bir yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlama f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan, k\u0131sa vadeli SONIA opsiyonlar\u0131yla yararlanmay\u0131 hedeflemeliyiz; zira Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019ndan gelecek g\u00fcvercin bir \u201csabit tutma\u201d karar\u0131, getiri e\u011frisinde sert bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikleyecektir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda, GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3300 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut seviyeden beklenen y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mdan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite, S\u00fcper Per\u015fembe toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde tarihsel olarak s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fundan mevcut prim seviyeleri g\u00f6rece cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Brent petrol\u00fcndeki son y\u00fckseli\u015fi yeniden 100 dolar seviyesine vurgu yapmas\u0131 halinde, \u015fahin bir kayma pariteyi h\u0131zla 1,3500 psikolojik diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, GBP\/USD teknik olarak zay\u0131f kalmaya devam etti\u011fi ve kilit 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ile 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, sterlinde uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131n vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Faizin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmeden korunmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik 7-2 oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve yeni Burnham y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda temkinli b\u00fcy\u00fcme projeksiyonlar\u0131, sterlini 1,3250 destek seviyesine do\u011fru \u00e7ekme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bear put spread kullan\u0131m\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken pe\u015fin \u00f6denen prim maliyetini s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler BoE \u201cS\u00fcper Per\u015fembe\u201dde: Faizin %3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131 ve 7-2 oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyon\/\u00fccretler so\u011furken GBP\/USD 1,3300\u2019de zay\u0131f; opsiyonlarda straddle, SONIA\u2019da yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlama f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t