Fed\u2019in politika faizlerini sabit tutma karar\u0131 ve Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019tan gelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ayr\u0131nt\u0131, ABD Hazine tahvili getiri e\u011frisinde belirgin bir dikle\u015fmeye yol a\u00e7t\u0131. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 11,2 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %5,20\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karak 2007 sonras\u0131 zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; hisse senetleri ise seans sonunda, g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki sert dalgalanmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geriledi. S&P 500 g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,52 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatt\u0131; bu, yedi haftan\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00fcn\u00fc olurken endeks FOMC \u00f6ncesi %0,5\u2019i a\u015fan kay\u0131ptan bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda art\u0131ya ge\u00e7mi\u015f, son saatte yeniden sat\u0131\u015fla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe teknoloji \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti. Philadelphia yar\u0131 iletken endeksi %5,33 gerilerken Nasdaq 100 %2,06 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve teknik d\u00fczeltme b\u00f6lgesine girdi; haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki zirvesine g\u00f6re %11,3 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da. Avrupa\u2019da Stoxx 600 %0,29 geriledi; CAC %0,60 d\u00fc\u015ferken FTSEMIB %0,49 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 geldi, FTSE 100 ise %0,34 y\u00fckseldi. Asya kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Nikkei %0,75 y\u00fckselirken KOSPI, g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde %5,50\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fe ra\u011fmen %5,98\u2019lik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan %1,30 geriledi. Samsung hisseleri, 2\u00c7 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda yar\u0131 iletken k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 250 kattan fazla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesine ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizinin %5,20\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131, de\u011ferleme modelleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken makro ortamda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Nasdaq 100\u2019\u00fcn haziran zirvesine g\u00f6re %11,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle resmen d\u00fczeltme b\u00f6lgesine girmesiyle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyerek artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki keskin e\u011fri dikle\u015fmeleri, 2023 sonlar\u0131nda uzun vadeli getirilerin s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki piyasa bozulmalar\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde volatilite endeksinde kal\u0131c\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikledi.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131 iletken endeksindeki son %5,33\u2019l\u00fck sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerin acil a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korumaya ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Prim maliyetlerini y\u00f6netilebilir tutarken ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji ve yar\u0131 iletken endekslerinde ay\u0131 (bear) put spread\u2019leri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, Fed\u2019in mevcut duru\u015fu alt\u0131nda \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ortam\u0131na uyum sa\u011flan\u0131rken sermayeyi korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Getiri e\u011frisindeki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 dikle\u015fme devam ederken, sabit getirili t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uzun vade tahviller \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Hazine vadeli i\u015flemleri opsiyonlar\u0131nda i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131; \u00f6zellikle uzun vadeli Hazine ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. Merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 detay nedeniyle piyasan\u0131n zorlanmas\u0131yla bu e\u011filimin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel piyasalar genelinde tepkiler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrederken, s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi hisse t\u00fcrevleri g\u00f6rece de\u011fer (relative value) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6zg\u00fcn f\u0131rsatlar sunuyor. Savunma a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Avrupa endeks vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun, duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gibi pair trade\u2019lerin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, diren\u00e7li de\u011fer (value) sekt\u00f6rleri ile k\u0131r\u0131lgan, y\u00fcksek beta teknoloji hisseleri aras\u0131ndaki artan ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed faizleri sabit tuttu, Warsh belirsiz konu\u015ftu: getiri e\u011frisi h\u0131zla dikle\u015fti. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil %5,20 ile zirvede; S&P 500 sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Nasdaq d\u00fczeltmede. Opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t