{"id":52013,"date":"2026-07-30T07:52:33","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T07:52:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/hirvatistan-ufe-sicradi-orta-ve-dogu-avrupadaki-yakit-soku-kritik-veriler-ve-fed-ayrismasi-oncesinde-enflasyon-risklerini-yeniden-alevlendirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T07:52:33","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T07:52:33","slug":"hirvatistan-ufe-sicradi-orta-ve-dogu-avrupadaki-yakit-soku-kritik-veriler-ve-fed-ayrismasi-oncesinde-enflasyon-risklerini-yeniden-alevlendirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hirvatistan-ufe-sicradi-orta-ve-dogu-avrupadaki-yakit-soku-kritik-veriler-ve-fed-ayrismasi-oncesinde-enflasyon-risklerini-yeniden-alevlendirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u0131rvatistan \u00dcFE S\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki Yak\u0131t \u015eoku, Kritik Veriler ve Fed Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u00d6ncesinde Enflasyon Risklerini Yeniden Alevlendirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

H\u0131rvatistan\u2019\u0131n sanayi \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,7 artt\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise bir dizi veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor: H\u0131rvatistan\u2019\u0131n haziran perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 11:00 CET\u2019te, Romanya\u2019n\u0131n haziran i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 08:00 CET\u2019te, Macaristan\u2019\u0131n haziran d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi ve \u00f6nc\u00fc 2\u00c7 GSYH verisi 08:30 CET\u2019te ve \u00c7ekya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc 2\u00c7 GSYH verisi 09:00 CET\u2019te. MENA (Ortado\u011fu-Kuzey Afrika) kaynakl\u0131 gerilim ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki aksakl\u0131klarla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u015foka kar\u015f\u0131 dizel ve Euro95\u2019in y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana (YTD) ortalamalar\u0131ndan sapmalar\u0131, \u00c7ekya, Romanya ve Polonya\u2019y\u0131 en k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u00fclkeler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin ard\u0131ndan yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 b\u00f6lge genelinde YTD ortalamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere inerken, temmuzdaki yeniden alevlenen gerilim her iki yak\u0131t\u0131 da yeniden bu ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu durum dezenflasyon patikas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, \u00f6zellikle \u00c7ekya ve Polonya\u2019da politika beklentilerini daha \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgiye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de Federal Rezerv politika faizini %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131; ancak \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 desteklemesi nedeniyle oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekti. Fed, faaliyeti \u201csa\u011flam\u201d ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 \u201cistikrarl\u0131\u201d olarak nitelendirirken, enflasyonun %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti\u011fini yineledi ve bask\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 Ortado\u011fu gerilimlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirdi. \u015eeffafl\u0131\u011fa ve bilgi g\u00fcncellemelerine ili\u015fkin ayr\u0131 kurumsal a\u00e7\u0131klamalar da metne dahil edildi.<\/p>\n

Yak\u0131t Fiyat\u0131 Bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve B\u00f6lgesel Politika Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Yenilenen Ortado\u011fu gerilimlerinin dizel ve Euro95 yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine itti\u011fini ve Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa (CEE) genelinde dezenflasyonu sekteye u\u011fratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ani enerji \u015foku, Polonya, \u00c7ekya ve Romanya\u2019y\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde etkileyerek y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli rahatlamay\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. K\u00fcresel Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83 dolar civar\u0131nda oynak seyrederken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli b\u00f6lgesel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu yak\u0131t bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Prag ve Var\u015fova\u2019daki merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015f benimsemesi muhtemel. Faiz trader\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n PLN ve CZK cinsinden payer swap\u2019lara girerek \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son y\u0131llardaki enerji \u015foklar\u0131na ili\u015fkin tarihsel e\u011filimler, yerel yak\u0131t kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon yeniden yukar\u0131 k\u0131p\u0131rdad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda CEE tahvil getirilerinin h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Ekonomik Veri Oda\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

Ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine CEE paritelerinde, \u00f6zellikle EUR\/PLN ve EUR\/CZK\u2019de volatilite sat\u0131n almalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutma karar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fahin sinyal ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullanmas\u0131 bunu peki\u015ftirdi. \u015eahin Fed duru\u015fu ile b\u00f6lgesel enflasyon risklerinin birle\u015fimi, yak\u0131n vadede sert kur hareketlerini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, bug\u00fcn \u00c7ekya ve Macaristan\u2019dan gelecek \u00f6nc\u00fc 2\u00c7 GSYH verilerine ve H\u0131rvatistan\u2019daki %5,7\u2019lik sanayi \u00fcretici fiyat\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yak\u0131ndan bakmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergeleri, s\u00f6z konusu ekonomilerin daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyacak. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u00c7ekya\u2019n\u0131n 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019si bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 %0,2\u2013%0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutma konusunda daha fazla g\u00fcven kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CEE\u2019de alarm: Ortado\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 yak\u0131t \u015foku dezenflasyonu zorluyor; \u00c7ekya\u2011Polonya\u2011Romanya k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Fed %3,50\u2011%3,75\u2019te sabit, 3 \u00fcye art\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131. Bug\u00fcn GSYH\/perakende\/i\u015fsizlik verileri izlenecek. Swap\/volatilite \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t