Rupi, ABD Hazine tahvil faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin dolar\u0131 desteklemesiyle per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/INR 95,60\u201395,61 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Asya saatlerinde ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %1,8 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,71\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak son 18 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ise, Fed\u2019in politika karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc takiben %0,12 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 100,93 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Fed, be\u015finci toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste faizi sabit tutarak hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131; piyasalar ise g\u00fc\u00e7lenen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ve s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik gerilime ba\u011fl\u0131 yeniden canlanan enflasyon endi\u015felerini tart\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi s\u00fcrerken petrol per\u015fembe erken saatlerde geriledi; \u0130ran medyas\u0131 Abadan ve Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019na sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlendi\u011fini bildirdi. 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.030 rupi seviyesinde %1,1 d\u00fc\u015ferken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Bab el-Mendeb\u2019deki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar nedeniyle arz riskleri devam etti. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 95,86\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken RSI 47,76 seviyesinde; diren\u00e7 95,86 ve ard\u0131ndan 97,10\u2019da, destek ise 95,00\u2019da izleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, 95,00 seviyesindeki kritik deste\u011fe do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131 95,86\u2019n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda konsolide olurken, opsiyon ima edilen volatilitesi g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor; bu da prim al\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejilerin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle kurulabilmesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor. 95,86 \u00fczerindeki net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, pariteyi h\u0131zla 97,10\u2019daki son zirveye ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019ten fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithalatla kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 nedeniyle, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki mevcut askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f rupi i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir tehdit olu\u015fturuyor. Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik gerilim kaynakl\u0131 petrol fiyat\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131nda Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zla geni\u015fleyerek yerel para birimi \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ani arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) MCX ham petrol al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, ABD faizlerinde daha y\u00fcksek seviyelere haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in tahvil vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 veya payer swap i\u015flemlerine girilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %4,71\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, 2023 sonundaki ve geli\u015fen piyasa varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyen s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 an\u0131msat\u0131yor. ABD faizleri bu \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n kald\u0131k\u00e7a, rupide olas\u0131 toparlanmalar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 muhtemelen zor olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi\u2019de alarm: ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %4,71\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, USD\/INR 95,60\u2019ta. Fed sabit tuttu; petrol\/jeopolitik risk bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Kritik: 95,00 destek, 95,86 diren\u00e7; call ve petrol opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t