Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, gelecek mali y\u0131l i\u00e7in b\u00fct\u00e7e taleplerine \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r getirilmemesini \u00f6nerdiklerini belirtirken, man\u015fet rakamlar\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u0131llara k\u0131yasla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, piyasalarda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir tepkiyi tetikleyebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u00f6nceki y\u0131llar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir ilk b\u00fct\u00e7enin y\u0131l baz\u0131nda (y\u0131ll\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131) \u00e7er\u00e7evede tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bakanl\u0131k, mevcut b\u00fct\u00e7e kapsam\u0131nda Kumamoto depremi sonras\u0131 ayr\u0131lan yedek \u00f6deneklerin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ilmesine \u015fimdilik gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Piyasalarda USD\/JPY g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,03 y\u00fckseli\u015fle, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 163,47 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 163,47 civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e taleplerinde tavan\u0131 kald\u0131rma karar\u0131, piyasan\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 harcamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlamas\u0131 halinde kurda sert dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu belirsizli\u011fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, ima edilen volatilitedeki ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz s\u0131\u00e7ramadan faydalanmak \u00fczere k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kamu borcu h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda GSYH\u2019nin %260\u2019\u0131 gibi astronomik bir d\u00fczeyde bulunuyor; bu da kontrols\u00fcz mali geni\u015fleme sinyallerini k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece hassas hale getiriyor. Tarihsel olarak, Japonya s\u0131k\u0131 limitler olmaks\u0131z\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00e7elerine i\u015faret etti\u011finde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n mali s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik endi\u015feleri nedeniyle yen \u00fczerinde belirgin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fuyor. Piyasan\u0131n 165 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareketi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla d\u00f6viz opsiyonu primlerinin anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131\u2014faizlerin yak\u0131n zamanda %0,25\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle\u2014bu gev\u015fek mali duru\u015f kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi \u015fekilde test edilecek. Kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fi\u015fmesi halinde, merkez bankas\u0131 yenin sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kalabilir. Bu t\u00fcr ani ve agresif merkez bankas\u0131 hamlelerine pozisyon alman\u0131n maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in knock-out bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar olas\u0131 bir piyasa a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepkisine a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011finden, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi riski olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor. Tarihsel olarak Japon yetkililer, yenin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede fazla zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k operasyonlarla FX piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahil oldu. Bu politika riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131plak spot pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 ve bunun yerine tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon spread stratejilerini tercih etmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" B\u00fct\u00e7e tavan\u0131 kalk\u0131yor: Japonya, gelecek y\u0131l daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00e7esiyle piyasay\u0131 germemek i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda tart\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131yor. USD\/JPY 163,47; volatilite, BoJ ve m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t