FOMC, Hammack, Logan ve Kashkari\u2019nin muhalefet etti\u011fi 9-3 oyla politikay\u0131 sabit tuttu; Ba\u015fkan Warsh da son d\u00f6nemde fiyat istikrar\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguya ra\u011fmen de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmamas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Warsh, piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmeden ziyade verilerden sinyal almas\u0131 nedeniyle toplant\u0131lar aras\u0131nda reel faizlerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; ancak yorumlarda bunun, Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u201crejim de\u011fi\u015fimi\u201d s\u00f6ylemine verilen bir tepkiye ve sonras\u0131nda Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilme kabiliyetine duyulan g\u00fcvenin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesine i\u015faret etti\u011fi belirtildi. K\u00fcm\u00fclatif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 56 baz puandan 50 baz puana gerilerken, eyl\u00fcl hamlesine ili\u015fkin z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k neredeyse kesin seviyeden %65\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine (UST) e\u011frisi, uzun vadede enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle 2s10s baz\u0131nda mart sonundan bu yana en sert \u015fekilde dikle\u015fti; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon swap\u0131 %2,3\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczerinde. Payla\u015f\u0131lan baz senaryo, aral\u0131k ve mart toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda 25\u2019er baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar olmaya devam etti. Fed bilan\u00e7o politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; g\u00f6rev g\u00fcc\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. New York Fed ise ayl\u0131k 10 milyar dolar tutar\u0131nda Hazine bonosu (T-bill) al\u0131mlar\u0131yla rezerv y\u00f6netimi ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2s10s Hazine tahvili getiri e\u011frisinin mart sonundan bu yana en sert dikle\u015fmeyi ya\u015famas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda e\u011fri dikle\u015fmesinin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentileri 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon swaplar\u0131nda %2,3 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar uzun vadeli tahvil getirilerindeki art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alabilir veya getiri y\u00fckseli\u015fine duyarl\u0131 payer swap i\u015flemlerine girebilir. Piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in son karar\u0131n\u0131 sindirip \u201cuzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek\u201d uzun vadeli getiriler ger\u00e7e\u011fine uyum sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde, s\u00f6z konusu dikle\u015fme e\u011filimi \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 neredeyse kesin seviyeden yaln\u0131zca %65\u2019e indirmi\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taktik f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) kaynakl\u0131 sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyri ve s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu yap\u0131\u015fkan tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu \u015fu a\u015famada eksik fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Eyl\u00fcl ve aral\u0131k vadeli Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda put opsiyonu almak, Fed\u2019in piyasan\u0131n \u015fimdi bekledi\u011finden daha erken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmak zorunda kalmas\u0131 halinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in ayl\u0131k 10 milyar dolarl\u0131k istikrarl\u0131 Hazine bonosu al\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadeli likiditenin sonbahar boyunca olduk\u00e7a istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, y\u0131l sonu bilan\u00e7o g\u00f6rev g\u00fcc\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken \u00f6n u\u00e7 faizlerde k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite satarak bu ortamdan faydalanabilir. Daha geni\u015f piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in bir sonraki hamlesine ili\u015fkin b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde bant i\u00e7inde hareketi hedefleyen opsiyon stratejilerinin en istikrarl\u0131 getiriyi sunaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz sinyal: Fed 9-3 oyla faizi sabit tuttu; Warsh \u201cveri\u201d vurgulad\u0131. Piyasa eyl\u00fcl ihtimalini %65\u2019e indirdi. UST e\u011frisi keskin dikle\u015fti; long getiri art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t