{"id":51996,"date":"2026-07-30T03:52:07","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T03:52:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fedin-faizi-sabit-tutmasinin-ardindan-usd-jpy-geriledi-muhalif-oylar-eylulde-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-artirirken-japonya-ile-politika-farki-suruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T03:52:07","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T03:52:07","slug":"fedin-faizi-sabit-tutmasinin-ardindan-usd-jpy-geriledi-muhalif-oylar-eylulde-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-artirirken-japonya-ile-politika-farki-suruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-faizi-sabit-tutmasinin-ardindan-usd-jpy-geriledi-muhalif-oylar-eylulde-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-artirirken-japonya-ile-politika-farki-suruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY geriledi; muhalif oylar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken Japonya ile politika fark\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fed, saat 18:00 GMT\u2019de be\u015finci toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131. Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY 164,00\u2019\u0131n hemen alt\u0131ndan 163,50 b\u00f6lgesine gev\u015fedi; sonras\u0131nda 163,00\u2019\u0131n biraz \u00fczerini test ettikten sonra yeniden 163,50 civar\u0131nda dengelendi ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,24 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Karar 9\u2019a 3 oyla ge\u00e7ti; \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015ftan yana muhalefet \u015ferhi koydu. Vadeli i\u015flemler, toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %36\u2019l\u0131k \u201cfaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kuyru\u011fu\u201d fiyatlarken bu oran Temmuz ortas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %11 seviyesindeydi; a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 bu prim geri verildi. ABD faizlerinde ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 baz puan gerilerken 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz 9 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Bu tablo Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e ili\u015fkin olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 civar\u0131nda tutarken parite a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha dik bir getiri e\u011frisi dinami\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n

Japonya-ABD politika fark\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 275 baz puanda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politika faizi %1,00\u2019da ve \u00e7ekirdek\/enflasyon e\u011filimi yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Nisan sonu\u2013May\u0131s sonu aras\u0131nda yen al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 11,7 trilyon yen harcad\u0131. Spek\u00fclatif yen k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 Haziran sonu itibar\u0131yla 150 bin kontrat\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131; uzun vadeli Japon devlet tahvili getirileri ise 30 ve 40 y\u0131l vadelerde %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Kamu borcu GSYH\u2019nin %230\u2019unu a\u015farken, petrol bu ay %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; yen bazl\u0131 ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %25,5 artt\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD PCE verileri (\u00e7ekirdek: ayl\u0131k %0,2; y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3; man\u015fet: y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7), 2\u00c7 GSYH %2,1 ve i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 200 bin (\u00f6nceki 187 bin) izlenecek. Ard\u0131ndan Tokyo T\u00dcFE (taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,7 (\u00f6nceki %1,6) ve BoJ\u2019un faizi %1,00\u2019da sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; 03:00 GMT\u2019de Outlook Report ve 06:30 GMT\u2019de bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 takip edilecek. Teknik olarak 164,00\u2019\u0131n hemen alt\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan 165,00 diren\u00e7; 163,00 ve 162,00 destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 161,50 civar\u0131nda, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 158,00 civar\u0131nda; g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stochastic RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 56 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n

Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Ortam\u0131nda USD\/JPY \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u00f6zellikle 163,00 pivot seviyesi korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f (bullish) e\u011filimini muhafaza etmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed\u2019in d\u00fcn faizi sabit tutmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n 9-3\u2019l\u00fck oylama, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden belirgin \u015fahin bir alt ton bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD-Japonya getiri fark\u0131 geni\u015f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 yenin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli rahatlamas\u0131 dolar lehine pozisyonlar i\u00e7in cazip bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu trendi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, m\u00fcdahale risklerinin yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 164,00 ve 165,00 seviyelerini hedefleyen al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Spek\u00fclatif net yen k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde 150.000 kontrat\u0131 a\u015farak, 2024\u2019teki tarih\u00ee yen \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fe benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sundu; CFTC verilerinde net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar o d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k 180.000 kontratta zirve yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu kadar yo\u011fun pozisyonlanma, olas\u0131 ani bir m\u00fcdahalenin y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k yarataca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor; bu nedenle spot ta\u015f\u0131ma yerine k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar daha g\u00fcvenli bir tercih olabilir.<\/p>\n

Yen \u0130\u00e7in Risk Y\u00f6netimi ve Piyasa G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Japonya\u2019n\u0131n devlet tahvili piyasas\u0131na da bakmak gerekiyor; 30 ve 40 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f durumda. Tarihsel olarak Japonya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019nin %230\u2019unu a\u015fan y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk oran\u0131, para birimini savunmay\u0131 son derece maliyetli k\u0131l\u0131yor; zira y\u00fckselen yerel faizler b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da zorlayabiliyor. Yen, daralan spread\u2019lerle olan ba\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015f ve uzun vadeli ABD faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fe art\u0131k daha olumsuz tepki verir hale gelmi\u015fken, ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmelerde yen rallilerinin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n etkisiyle bu ay petroldeki %20\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama, yene bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye aday. Japonya enerjisinin neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011finden, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 yen \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bir \u201cdrenaj\u201d etkisi yarat\u0131yor ve ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ift haneli oranlarda yukar\u0131 itiyor. Yen\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in enerji temal\u0131 t\u00fcrevler veya petrolle e\u015fle\u015ftirilmi\u015f \u00e7apraz kur stratejileriyle hedge edilmesini uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Haziran PCE verisi ve yar\u0131nki BoJ karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n anl\u0131k fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %1,7 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrini korurken, BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ueda\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin bir patikaya i\u015faret etmemesi USD\/JPY\u2019yi 164,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine h\u0131zla ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. 165,00\u2019a do\u011fru bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyonlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in de 163,00 deste\u011finin hemen alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu; 9-3 oy \u015fahin sinyal verdi. USD\/JPY 163,50\u2019de dengelendi. 163 pivot \u00fcst\u00fcnde 164-165 hedefli call opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t