Fed, Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131. Tutanaklarda, belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek seyrine ra\u011fmen faaliyetin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tempoda geni\u015fledi\u011fi, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise \u201ci\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne ayak uydurdu\u011fu\u201d belirtildi. Karar 9\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 3 oyla al\u0131nd\u0131; Cleveland, Minneapolis ve Dallas Fed Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015ftan yana muhalefet etti. Kripto fiyatlar\u0131 ilk etapta g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; Bitcoin (BTC) a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 64.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra geri \u00e7ekildi ve son olarak 63.900 dolarda, son 24 saatte %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Glassnode, BTC\u2019nin may\u0131sta ba\u015flayan ABD dolar\u0131 rallisinin gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2015\u2019ten bu yana izlenen 20 dolar rallisi i\u00e7inde, benzer bir noktada USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki performans a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en zay\u0131f \u00f6rnekler aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; yaln\u0131zca \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00f6nemin daha k\u00f6t\u00fc oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u015eirket bask\u0131y\u0131, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %5,20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131na ve \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k Bitcoin vadeli i\u015flem baz\u0131n\u0131n \u015fubattan bu yana iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131; bunun, A\u011fustos 2022-Ocak 2023 d\u00f6neminden sonra g\u00f6r\u00fclen yaln\u0131zca ikinci uzun s\u00fcreli negatif spread oldu\u011funu kaydetti. Glassnode, Bitcoin\u2019in en b\u00fcy\u00fck maliyet taban\u0131 k\u00fcmelenmesini 62.000-68.000 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6sterirken, k\u0131sa vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 maliyet taban\u0131n\u0131 69.000 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015faret etti; uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 arz duvar\u0131n\u0131 ise 83.000-86.000 dolar band\u0131nda konumland\u0131rd\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca fiyat\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faizleri %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %5,20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla birlikte, geleneksel tahviller son derece cazip hale geldi. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, kurumsal masalar\u0131n kald\u0131ra\u00e7 sa\u011flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 motivasyona sahip olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha s\u0131\u011f bir piyasa likiditesi beklemesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k Bitcoin vadeli i\u015flem baz getirisi iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, klasik cash-and-carry i\u015flemi \u015fu anda fiilen devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel verilere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer bir negatif baz spread\u2019i A\u011fustos 2022 ile Ocak 2023 aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f ve bu d\u00f6nem, son b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn dip seviyesine i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. K\u00fcresel kripto t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck hacimler 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131ndaki zirvelere k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015ferken, kurumsal kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde kenarda bekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7tan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131, bunun yerine prim toplama odakl\u0131 opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin, \u015fu anda 62.000-68.000 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki en yo\u011fun i\u015flem k\u00fcmesinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir arz\u0131n ba\u015fa ba\u015f noktas\u0131na gelmeyi bekledi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Zarar yazan k\u0131sa vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in pozisyon azaltmaya y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi 69.000 dolar seviyesindeki \u00fcst diren\u00e7 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Bu bariyerin a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, fiyat\u0131n mevcut band\u0131n alt k\u0131sm\u0131na, 62.000 dolara do\u011fru kademeli bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu piyasa d\u00fczeltmesi \u00f6nceki d\u00f6ng\u00fclere k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece s\u0131\u011f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden \u00f6nce s\u00fcrecin daha uzun zamana yay\u0131lmas\u0131 muhtemel. Erken bir makro dip \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapmak yerine savunmac\u0131 duru\u015f korunarak k\u0131sa vadeli taktik i\u015flemlere odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en k\u00e2rl\u0131 ara\u00e7 sab\u0131r olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed faizi sabit tuttu, tahvil getirileri %5,20\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131: Bitcoin ilk tepkiyle 64 bin \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc ama 62-68 bin band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Glassnode, zay\u0131f USD performans\u0131 ve negatif vadeli baz uyar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t