Avustralya dolar\u0131, Fed\u2019in faizleri 9\u2019a 3 oyla de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti. \u00dc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131, 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015ftan yana muhalefet \u015ferhi koydu. AUD\/USD 0,6950 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken %0,32 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle, karara ra\u011fmen pariteyi zay\u0131f tarafta b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed, a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda ekonomik faaliyetin istikrarl\u0131 bir h\u0131zda geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla uyumlu oldu\u011funu ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini kaydetti. Faizleri sabit tutma karar\u0131na; Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari ve Dallas Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lorie Logan\u2019\u0131n, 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tercih ederek kar\u015f\u0131 oy kullanmas\u0131 e\u015flik etti. Piyasalar, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bekliyordu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Fed\u2019in b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f faizleri sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/USD paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00dc\u00e7 \u015fahin muhalifin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapmas\u0131yla e\u011filim, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar lehine kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 0,6900 kritik destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir sarkmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli AUD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak 0,7000 e\u015fi\u011fi, Avustralya dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir psikolojik diren\u00e7 i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Halihaz\u0131rda Avustralya\u2019da t\u00fcketici enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,8 seviyesinde yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrini koruyor; bu durum Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) politika faizini %4,35\u2019te y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Ancak Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtimalini canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131 durumunda faiz fark\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 ABD dolar\u0131 lehine.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik gerilimler, g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirmeye devam ederek emtia duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutuyor. ABD\u2019de sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde %2,4 artt\u0131; bu da Amerikan ekonomisinin daha y\u00fcksek faizleri rahatl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 0,6980\u2019e do\u011fru ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde AUD\/USD\u2019yi satmay\u0131 ve 0,6800 seviyesine geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hedeflemeyi de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015fan bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131, gelecekteki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ili\u015fkin ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Warsh, \u00fc\u00e7 muhalifin \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne yak\u0131n durursa, \u015fu anda 8,2% ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde bulunan AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 muhtemel. Y\u00f6n\u00fc erken se\u00e7meden bu belirsizli\u011fi i\u015flemlemek i\u00e7in opsiyon straddle stratejileri ak\u0131ll\u0131ca bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in 9-3 b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f \u201csabit faiz\u201d karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 AUD kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smen telafi etse de AUD\/USD 0,6950\u2019de zay\u0131f. \u015eahin kar\u015f\u0131 oylar, 0,6900 riskini ve opsiyonla korunmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t