Euro, Fed\u2019in faizleri 9\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 3 oyla sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolara kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; \u00fc\u00e7 muhalif \u00fcye 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekledi. EUR\/USD oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korusa da 1,1400 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutunarak 1,1420 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve \u015fahin tonda \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ayarlamas\u0131yla %0,3 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Fed, a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fcksek belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen ekonomik faaliyetin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir h\u0131zda geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na, istikrarl\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve \u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6steren i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekilirken, fiyat istikrar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k da yinelendi. Muhalif oylar Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari ve Dallas Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lorie Logan\u2019dan geldi; \u015fimdi g\u00f6zler Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un d\u00fczenleyece\u011fi bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f karar\u0131n\u0131 sindirmesiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta EUR\/USD paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00dc\u00e7 \u015fahin muhalifin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 istemesi, euronun 1,1400 \u00fczerine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk y\u00fckseli\u015fin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu ve geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131k bulundu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un yakla\u015fan bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan beklenen sert fiyat hareketlerini yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n uygun bir y\u00f6ntem oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, \u00fc\u00e7 FOMC \u00fcyesinin daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika lehine muhalefet \u015ferhi koymas\u0131, takip eden toplant\u0131larda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n gelebilece\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal verir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Eyl\u00fcl 2016 gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer \u015fahin ayr\u0131\u015fmalar, faiz beklentileri ayarland\u0131k\u00e7a ABD dolar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralliyi beraberinde getirmi\u015fti. Bu tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc kullanarak EUR\/USD\u2019de ay\u0131 put spreadleri kurarak dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik veriler, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n son derece s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011fini; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %3,8 civar\u0131nda seyrederken sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n da istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir alan\u0131 bulundu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelirken, euronun 1,1420 \u00fczerine son ata\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki gibi g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, parite bu yerel zirveler yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrederken prim toplamak amac\u0131yla \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019li muadilinden daha temkinli kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle geni\u015fleyen faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131 da izlemek gerekiyor. K\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle hedge ederek, Warsh\u2019un konu\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ani fiyat kaymalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyabiliriz. Piyasa, Fed\u2019in oy kullanan az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki \u015fahin e\u011filimi tamamen fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a dolar\u0131n yeniden zemini sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019de 9\u2019a 3 b\u00f6l\u00fcnme euroyu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi: EUR\/USD 1,1400 \u00fcst\u00fcnde 1,1420\u2019ye tutundu. Ancak \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fahin muhalif sonras\u0131 oynakl\u0131k artabilir; Warsh bas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncesi opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t