{"id":51982,"date":"2026-07-30T00:51:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T00:51:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fedin-faizleri-sabit-tutmasiyla-dow-geriledi-muhalif-uyeler-faiz-artisini-savundu-piyasalar-eylul-sikilastirma-ihtimalini-dusurdu\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T00:51:46","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T00:51:46","slug":"fedin-faizleri-sabit-tutmasiyla-dow-geriledi-muhalif-uyeler-faiz-artisini-savundu-piyasalar-eylul-sikilastirma-ihtimalini-dusurdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-faizleri-sabit-tutmasiyla-dow-geriledi-muhalif-uyeler-faiz-artisini-savundu-piyasalar-eylul-sikilastirma-ihtimalini-dusurdu\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131yla Dow geriledi; muhalif \u00fcyeler faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 savundu, piyasalar eyl\u00fcl s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) 18:00 GMT\u2019de hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 3,50%\u20133,75% seviyesinde 9\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 3 oyla sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sert dalgaland\u0131; \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye, derhal \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f lehine muhalefet \u015ferhi koydu. Endeks, 16:15 GMT itibar\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k 52.800\u2019den 51.800\u2019e gerilemi\u015fti; ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dipten 450 puan\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde toparland\u0131 ancak bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k 140 puan\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Endeks 52.100 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirvenin 700 puandan fazla alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Faiz cephesinde piyasalar, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 16 baz puan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar en az bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019den %64\u2019e geriledi. Ekim yakla\u015f\u0131k %75, aral\u0131k ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %85 seviyesinde fiyatland\u0131.<\/p>\n

9 Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar en az iki art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %57\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %42\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. A\u00e7\u0131klama metni belirsizlik diline Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 da eklerken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cbak\u0131p ge\u00e7meyi\u201d (look-through) hedefledi\u011fi fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bir unsuru olarak i\u015faret etti. Odak, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilere d\u00f6n\u00fcyor: \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 (\u00f6nceki %0,3 ve %3,4) gelmesi bekleniyor; buna ek olarak 2\u00c7 \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH %2,1 ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 200 bin (187 bin) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 2\u00c7 \u0130stihdam Maliyeti Endeksi %0,8; 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k Michigan enflasyon beklentileri ise %4,2 ile de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Teknik seviyeler, yukar\u0131da 52.250, 52.600 ve 52.800; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 52.000, 51.800 ve daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcHO\u2019nun (EMA) 51.500 civar\u0131 olarak belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

Dow, Fed Sonras\u0131 Kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 Koruyamad\u0131; D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Senaryosu \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131k\u0131yor<\/h3>\n

Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nin Fed sonras\u0131 450 puanl\u0131k ralliyi kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ramamas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Endeks kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birini h\u0131zla geri vererek 52.100 civar\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara k\u0131sa vadeli tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Yak\u0131n vadedeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedeflerimiz 52.000 seviyesi ile g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip olan 51.800\u2019de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Makro Rahatlama Etkisini Yitiriyor, Hisse Bazl\u0131 Riskler Art\u0131yor; Defansif \u0130\u015flemler \u00d6neriliyor<\/h3>\n

Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019den %64\u2019e geriledi\u011fi \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d kaymaya ra\u011fmen endeksin geri \u00e7ekilmesi, makro rahatlaman\u0131n art\u0131k bu piyasay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maya yetmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Temel piyasa korelasyonunun tek hanelere inmesi, endeksin Fed politikas\u0131ndan ziyade hisse bazl\u0131 bozulmalar taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck korelasyon ortamlar\u0131, tekil \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131ndaki hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n genel ortalamay\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle daha derin endeks d\u00fczeltmelerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabiliyor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicileri olarak resmi bi\u00e7imde kabul etmesi de yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Brent gibi k\u00fcresel petrol g\u00f6stergeleri y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korurken varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 80\u201385 dolar band\u0131nda seyrediyor; tedarik zinciri aksamalar\u0131 \u015firket marjlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fed metn\u00fcndeki bu yeni \u015fahin unsur, daha yatay bir faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131n \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bozulmay\u0131 telafi etmekte yetersiz kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haziran Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) verisine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 gelmesi beklenirken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Veri beklentiyi a\u015farsa, Fed i\u00e7indeki \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fahin muhalifin tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve endeksi 51.800 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na iterek 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA) olan 51.500 civar\u0131na do\u011fru bask\u0131layabilir. 52.600 diren\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek herhangi bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 kesin ge\u00e7ersizlik (invalidation) seviyesi kabul ederek, koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131 veya ay\u0131 call spread (bear call spread) stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed faizi sabit tuttu ama Dow, 450 puanl\u0131k ralli sonras\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 koruyamad\u0131: 52.100\u2019de zay\u0131f seyir. Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f beklentisi %64\u2019e indi; PCE verisi 51.800\u201351.500 riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t