{"id":51979,"date":"2026-07-29T23:53:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T23:53:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fedin-faizi-sabit-tutmasi-daha-ilimli-faiz-patikasini-fiyatlatinca-dolar-endeksi-101in-altina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T23:53:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T23:53:03","slug":"fedin-faizi-sabit-tutmasi-daha-ilimli-faiz-patikasini-fiyatlatinca-dolar-endeksi-101in-altina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-faizi-sabit-tutmasi-daha-ilimli-faiz-patikasini-fiyatlatinca-dolar-endeksi-101in-altina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed’in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlat\u0131nca Dolar Endeksi 101’in alt\u0131na geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) 18:00 GMT\u2019de 9-3 oyla politika faiz hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,50-%3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 101,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye ise derhal 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde muhalefet etti. DXY, karar sonras\u0131 ilk bir saat i\u00e7inde 100,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, seans zirvesi 101,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Muhalif oy say\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen, faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131: 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019den %64 civar\u0131na gerilerken, Ekim yakla\u015f\u0131k %75 ve Aral\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %85\u2019e indi; her ikisi de Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. 9 Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar en az iki art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %57\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %42\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ferken, Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 hedef aral\u0131k %4,00-%4,25\u2019ten %3,75-%4,00\u2019e kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Bu toplant\u0131da Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti (SEP) yay\u0131mlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131k bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme verilmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in odak, gelecek veriler ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki \u201cdot plot\u201da d\u00f6n\u00fcyor; Haziran projeksiyonlar\u0131nda 18 noktan\u0131n dokuzu 2026\u2019da art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederken, oy hakk\u0131na sahip kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 yaln\u0131zca 12. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Haziran PCE\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek man\u015fetin ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e (\u00f6nceki %0,3 ve %3,4) gerilemesi, man\u015fet enflasyonda ise ayl\u0131k %-0,1 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7 (\u00f6nceki %4,1) g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bekleniyor. Ayn\u0131 veri setinde 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH i\u00e7in ilk tahminin %2,1 gelmesi ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 187 bin\u2019den 200 bin\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise 2. \u00e7eyrek \u0130stihdam Maliyeti Endeksi\u2019nin %0,8 gelmesi; Michigan beklentilerinin 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 seviyelerinde olu\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 101,00 ve 101,50 diren\u00e7; 100,85\u2019in ard\u0131ndan 100,50 ve 100,00 destek olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n

Piyasa Tepkisi ve Mevcut \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi<\/h3>\n\n

Piyasalarda, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 101,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na inerek 100,90 civar\u0131na gerilemesiyle klasik bir \u201cs\u00f6ylentide sat, haberde al\u201d tepkisi izleniyor. Oy kullanan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcyenin derhal faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 istemesine ra\u011fmen, Fed\u2019in faizi %3,50-%3,75\u2019te sabit tutma karar\u0131 piyasay\u0131 daha az s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde fiyatlamaya itti. Tarihsel olarak, FOMC i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131na\/ takvimine dair net bir taahh\u00fct vermemesi durumunda piyasa \u015fahin tonu iskonto etmeye ve getiri e\u011frisini yatayla\u015ft\u0131rmaya e\u011filim g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem perspektifinden, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131 lehine pozisyonlarda temkinli olunmas\u0131 ve DXY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) bir e\u011filimle 101,00 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 100,50 ve 100,00 desteklerini hedefleyen k\u0131sa DXY vadeli i\u015flemleri veya kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131, risk\/\u00f6d\u00fcl a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip bir profil sunabilir. DXY\u2019nin g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 101,50\u2019nin yeniden \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131rsa, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kat\u0131 bir \u201cge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme\u201d (invalidation) seviyesi belirlenmesi \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n

Faiz T\u00fcrevleri \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n\n

Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %64\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte, faiz t\u00fcrevleri h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlan\u0131yor. Nihai faiz oran\u0131 (terminal rate) beklentisi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kayarken, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (\u00f6r. SOFR kontratlar\u0131) y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc kurgularla bu harekete pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %57\u2019den %42\u2019ye gerilemesi, k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerde \u201cen az diren\u00e7\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn \u015fu a\u015famada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Yakla\u015fan \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi (y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e so\u011fuma beklentisi) ile 2. \u00e7eyrek \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH\u2019nin %2,1 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. PCE verisi dezenflasyon beklentileriyle uyumlu gelirse, Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek dolar \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, enflasyon beklentilerinin yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131 halinde DXY\u2019de ge\u00e7ici s\u0131\u00e7ramalar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; bu t\u00fcr y\u00fckseli\u015fler k\u0131sa t\u00fcrev pozisyonlara yeniden giri\u015f i\u00e7in uygun f\u0131rsatlar olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed faizi %3,50-%3,75\u2019te sabit tutunca DXY 101 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; piyasalar daha az s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler PCE\/GSYH verilerinde: 101-101,5 diren\u00e7, 100,5-100 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t