Fed, hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 3,50%\u20133,75% seviyesinde 9\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 3 oyla (\u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye derhal 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekledi) 18:00 GMT\u2019de sabit tutarken, USD\/CAD yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,4100\u2019den a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rarak 1,4050\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na geriledi. Daha \u00f6nce, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) 17:30 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fczakerelerin \u00d6zeti paritede kayda de\u011fer bir hareket yaratmad\u0131; bu da kurun ilan edilen farktan ziyade beklenen politika fark\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirdi. BoC\u2019nin Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 senaryosu temmuz ortas\u0131ndan bu yana piyasada ana beklenti olarak fiyatlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu nedenle son spread hareketleri Kanada taraf\u0131ndaki bir de\u011fi\u015fimden \u00e7ok ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimallerinin gerilemesinden kaynakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, \u015fimdi 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar en az bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %64\u2019e (toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi ~%80) indiriyor; Ekim ~%75, Aral\u0131k ~%85 civar\u0131nda. 9 Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar en az iki art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise %57\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %42\u2019ye geriledi. Odak, cuma 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada May\u0131s GSYH verisine \u00e7evriliyor; beklenti ayl\u0131k %0,2 (\u00f6nceki %0,5). Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD verileri aras\u0131nda \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 (\u00f6nceki %0,3 ve %3,4), 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019nin %2,1 ve i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 200 bin (\u00f6nceki 187 bin) gelmesi bekleniyor. Teknik seviyelerde 1,4100, 1,4150 ve 1,4250 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7; 1,4000 ve 1,3950 destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, parite kritik 1,4100 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda bask\u0131l\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece USD\/CAD\u2019de taktiksel olarak k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir pozisyonlanma benimsemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 3,50%\u20133,75% seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131 dolar\u0131n ivmesini zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %64\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim, BoC ile beklenen politika fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltarak 1,4100\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak 1,4000 seviyesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir psikolojik pivot olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 2020\u2019deki makro rejim de\u011fi\u015fimlerinde de paritenin bu b\u00f6lge etraf\u0131nda tekrar tekrar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek ve diren\u00e7 buldu\u011funu g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Parite \u015fu anda 1,4050 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, k\u0131sa vadeli risk reversal\u2019lar USD put\u2019lar\u0131na do\u011fru kayan bir e\u011filime i\u015faret ediyor; bu da opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir test olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na aktif bi\u00e7imde haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. K\u00e2r al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in 1,4000 seviyesini hedefliyoruz; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1,4100 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini ise net bir ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme (invalidation) tetikleyicisi olarak kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu i\u015flem i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli kataliz\u00f6r, yakla\u015fan ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) fiyat endeksi olacak. \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen %3,3 seviyesine gerilemesi halinde, ABD tahvil faizlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,4000 hedefimize rahatl\u0131kla itebilir. Bu hareketi yakalamak ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Kanada GSYH verisi s\u0131ras\u0131nda olu\u015fabilecek sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (whipsaw) riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli (short-dated) USD\/CAD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu paritede yerle\u015fik \u201ckendini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan\u201d geri besleme mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ithal enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker; bu da zaman i\u00e7inde BoC\u2019nin g\u00f6rece \u015fahin duru\u015funu yumu\u015fat\u0131r ve kur i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturur. Bu nedenle 1,3950 destek seviyesinin sa\u011flam kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n uzun soluklu bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi kovalamaktansa k\u00e2r\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 realize etmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in sabit kalmas\u0131 ve art\u0131\u015f ihtimallerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,4100 alt\u0131na itti. BoC etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. K\u0131sa e\u011filim: 1,4100 alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f, hedef 1,4000; risk Kanada GSYH, ABD PCE.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t