Meksika pesosu, K\u00f6rfez \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve Federal Rezerv karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti. USD\/MXN 17,51 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken %0,47 y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131n\u0131n ve Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n ilave ad\u0131mlara i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan petrol y\u00fckseldi; Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 artarak 84,62 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u00f6nemli bir ABD verisi bulunmazken, petrol Haziran kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re neredeyse %20 yukar\u0131da seyrederken dikkat Fed\u2019e odakland\u0131; Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %59 olarak fiyatlarken, 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %41\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar nihai ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na ve \u00c7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne odaklanacak. Meksika takvimi bo\u015f kal\u0131rken, USMCA g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 netlik sundu. Fitch, Meksika\u2019y\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyenin en alt basama\u011f\u0131 olan \u201cBBB\/dura\u011fan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u201dde tuttu. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/MXN 17,5105 seviyesinde; 17,45 civar\u0131ndaki desteklerin ve 17,416 civar\u0131ndaki Basit Hareketli Ortalama b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde tutunurken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 53\u2019e yak\u0131n; daha derin bir seviye olarak 15,80 civar\u0131 i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan jeopolitik gerilim ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uzun (long) USD\/MXN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Kurun h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 17,42\u2019deki kritik destek seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 bozulduk\u00e7a 18,00 seviyesine do\u011fru bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak benzer y\u00fcksek ticaret gerilimi ve k\u00fcresel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde Meksika pesosunun ima edilen volatilitesi %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu da uzun volatilite stratejilerini \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %41\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesiyle, ABD tahvil getirilerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete k\u0131sa (short) hazine vadeli i\u015flemleri veya faiz swaplar\u0131 ile pozisyon almak da g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Ham petrol\u00fcn 84,62 dolara h\u0131zl\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131\u2014Haziran kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse %20 \u00fczerinde\u2014enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6r i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve Fed\u2019i muhtemelen \u015fahin bir duru\u015fe zorlayacak. Yakla\u015fan ABD GSYH ve \u00c7ekirdek PCE verileri \u00f6ncesinde \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprize pozisyon almak, ABD ile Meksika aras\u0131ndaki faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, USMCA ticaret gerilimlerinin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Meksika \u015firket tahvili ve hisse senedi pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131, peso \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak korumal\u0131y\u0131z. Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 Meksika\u2019n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir BBB notunu korusa da, ticari ili\u015fkilerde ilave bozulma veya ABD\u2019den yeni tarife tehditleri ani bir egemen not indirimi riskini tetikleyebilir. 2019\u2019daki tarife tehditleri gibi tarihsel ticaret \u015foklar\u0131nda pesonun birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde gerilemesi hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u201ccollar\u201d stratejileri bu y\u00fcksek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez d\u00f6nemde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" K\u00f6rfez gerilimi ve y\u00fckselen petrol pesoyu vurdu: USD\/MXN 17,51\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %41. Strateji: long USD\/MXN call, uzun volatilite; peso put\u2019la hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t