{"id":51975,"date":"2026-07-29T22:52:45","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T22:52:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/kanada-merkez-bankasi-toplanti-tutanaklari-enflasyon-risklerine-isaret-ederken-fed-karari-oncesi-usd-cad-14100un-altinda-kaliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T22:52:45","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T22:52:45","slug":"kanada-merkez-bankasi-toplanti-tutanaklari-enflasyon-risklerine-isaret-ederken-fed-karari-oncesi-usd-cad-14100un-altinda-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/kanada-merkez-bankasi-toplanti-tutanaklari-enflasyon-risklerine-isaret-ederken-fed-karari-oncesi-usd-cad-14100un-altinda-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 enflasyon risklerine i\u015faret ederken, Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi USD\/CAD 1,4100\u2019un alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) 15 Temmuz\u2019da faizi sabit tuttu\u011fu toplant\u0131ya ili\u015fkin tutanaklar, Fed karar\u0131ndan k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce yay\u0131mland\u0131. 7\u201315 Temmuz aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131da politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi \u015fart\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5\u2019e do\u011fru yumu\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ederken, politika faizini %2,25\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131. Yetkililer do\u011frudan enerji fiyat\u0131 etkilerini \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelme\u201d konusunda uzla\u015f\u0131rken, ikinci tur etkiler olu\u015fmas\u0131 halinde tepki verme taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fc korudu. Bu duru\u015f, Brent\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7 seansta %16 d\u00fc\u015ferek 2020\u2019den bu yana en sert hareketini sergilemesinden ve ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %4\u2019ten fazla toparlanmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce \u015fekillenmi\u015fti. USD\/CAD belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi; 1,4100 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 piplik bantta kald\u0131. Banka\u2019n\u0131n Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,71 ABD dolar\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 da spot i\u015flemlerde zaten kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f durumdayd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Tutanaklar iki temel riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131: sava\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve ABD ticaret politikas\u0131ndan kaynaklanabilecek daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme; karardan be\u015f g\u00fcn sonra Washington, \u00e7e\u015fitli Kanada mallar\u0131na %50 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi uygulad\u0131. Banka, 2025 1. \u00e7eyrekten 2026 1. \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar s\u0131f\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir ekonomi tasvir ederken, Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 ABD-Kanada getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131. O tarihten bu yana haziran enflasyonu %2,8\u2019e geriledi ve \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergeler be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine indi. Piyasa oda\u011f\u0131 Fed\u2019in 18:00 GMT duyurusuna ve Kanada\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s GSYH verisine kayd\u0131; erken haziran tahmini %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyordu. Teknik g\u00f6stergelerde 1,4150 ve 1,4250 diren\u00e7; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 1,4050 civar\u0131nda destek, ard\u0131ndan 1,4000 ve 1,3900\u2019un hemen alt\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 21 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Ortam\u0131nda Y\u00f6nsel \u0130\u015flem G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Fed\u2019in politika karar\u0131 bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine oynayacak \u015fekilde pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. USD\/CAD paritesi, kritik 1,4100 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda, s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131r \u015fekilde seyrediyor. ABD vadeli fiyatlamalar\u0131nda h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u015fahin bir kuyruk riskinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019den gelebilecek herhangi bir yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz, yak\u0131n vadeli direncin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Bu kur i\u00e7in tarihsel olarak en temel belirleyici olan ABD-Kanada tahvil getirisi fark\u0131ndaki geni\u015flemeye odaklanmak gerekiyor. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri fark\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde 100 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CAD\u2019i istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Kanada\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,8\u2019e so\u011fumas\u0131 ve yurt i\u00e7i getirilerin yataylamas\u0131yla, s\u00f6z konusu fark\u0131n daha da geni\u015flemesi en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patika olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Risk Y\u00f6netimi ve \u0130\u015flem \u00d6nerileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6zellikle Kanada mallar\u0131na getirilen yeni %50 ABD tarifeleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Kanada ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 da korunmal\u0131. Bu ticaret \u015foku, Brent petrol\u00fcn son d\u00f6nemde \u00fc\u00e7 seansta %16\u2019l\u0131k sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle birle\u015ferek, BoC\u2019nin mevcut %2,25 taban\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131rma kapasitesini ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n birikimli etkisinin, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 71 ABD sentine yak\u0131n seviyelerde belirgin \u015fekilde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

1,4250 y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvelerine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 1,4050\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA) ay boyunca g\u00fcvenilir bir destek sundu ve y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in bizim \u201cge\u00e7ersizlik\u201d seviyemiz olarak izleniyor. Uzun volatilite stratejilerinin ya da call spread\u2019lerin korunmas\u0131, politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131rken petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki ani dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed \u00f6ncesi yay\u0131mlanan BoC tutanaklar\u0131, faizin %2,25\u2019te kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve petrol d\u00fc\u015ferse enflasyonun %2,5\u2019e inece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Riskler: sava\u015f enflasyonu, ABD tarifeleri. USD\/CAD k\u0131r\u0131lmaya yak\u0131n; 1,4250 hedefli call \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t