USD\/CHF \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fckselerek, bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrini korudu ve piyasan\u0131n \u015fahin Fed beklentilerini \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) istikrarl\u0131 duru\u015fuyla tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda 0,8204 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, \u00fcst \u00fcste sekizinci g\u00fcnl\u00fck art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederken, ABD Dolar\u0131 Fed\u2019in 18:00 GMT\u2019deki karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde destekli kald\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 101,24 dip seviyesinden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 101,45 yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
Politika beklentileri \u00f6nemini koruyor. Fed\u2019in bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak fiyatlamalar daha y\u00fcksek bir sonuca y\u00f6nelik riski yans\u0131tmaya devam ediyor. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu zemin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki bir ABD askeri \u00fcss\u00fcne f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n misilleme tehdidiyle enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle peki\u015fti. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyon son aylarda y\u00fckseldi ancak beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; Commerzbank ise SNB\u2019nin 2027 sonuna kadar faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF paritesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; parite sekiz g\u00fcnl\u00fck ralli sonras\u0131 0,8200 seviyesini test ediyor. Fed\u2019in y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 ile SNB\u2019nin s\u0131f\u0131r faiz politikas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki keskin fark dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fleyen getiri fark\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren stratejilere odaklanmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki son gerilimlerin ard\u0131ndan Brent gibi k\u00fcresel ham petrol g\u00f6stergelerinin %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu destekliyor. Tarihsel olarak petrolde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar sermayeyi dolara y\u00f6nlendirmi\u015f ve ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 101,50\u2019deki kritik dirence ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiriler nedeniyle g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini kaybetmesiyle kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma senaryosuna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
G10 d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite bu hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan opsiyon sat\u0131n almak daha maliyetli hale geldi. Giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek amac\u0131yla, 0,8200 uzun kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve 0,8350 k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ile bo\u011fa call spread (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yap\u0131, dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalan\u0131rken pe\u015fin \u00f6denen primi kesin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131 tercih edilir; ancak piyasada Fed\u2019den s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %30 olarak fiyatlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle savunmac\u0131 stoplar kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131r. K\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in stop-loss seviyelerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknik destek olan 0,8120\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019den gelecek \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir short squeeze\u2019i tetikleyerek pariteyi 0,8400 seviyesine do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi USD\/CHF sekizinci g\u00fcn y\u00fckselip 0,8200 civar\u0131nda; \u015fahin Fed beklentisi, SNB\u2019nin s\u0131f\u0131r faiziyle getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor. Petrol \u015foku enflasyon endi\u015fesini besliyor; 0,8400 hedefi masada. Bull call spread, 0,8120 alt\u0131 stop.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t