ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ko\u015fullar\u0131 diren\u00e7li olarak nitelendirildi: Haziran\u2019da istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015flarken, \u00fccret bask\u0131lar\u0131 zirvelerinden geriledi; bu durum, faizlerin daha da art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in acil bir itki b\u0131rakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, resesyon endi\u015felerini tetikleyecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa da i\u015faret etmiyor. Faiz beklentilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ise \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ilgili geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131; son alevlenmenin s\u00fcresine dair belirsizli\u011fin piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck olmadan politikay\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na neden oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l bir sonucun temel senaryo olarak sunuldu\u011fu; yakla\u015fan ara se\u00e7imler ve Trump\u2019\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck be\u011feni oran\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131rken, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zamanlaman\u0131n kritik oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Beklenmedik bir bar\u0131\u015f duyurusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u015fahin bir ton benimsemesi bekleniyordu. Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u0131n forward guidance\u2019a (y\u00f6nlendirmeye) y\u00f6nelik bilinen isteksizli\u011fiyle uyumlu bi\u00e7imde, metnin k\u0131sa kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n; bunun yerine gelecekteki olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in esnekli\u011fi korumak ad\u0131na \u201cy\u00fcksek belirsizlik\u201d ve verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 (data-dependent) bir duru\u015f etraf\u0131nda \u015fekillenmesinin beklendi\u011fi ifade edildi. Warsh\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl hamlesini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a i\u015faret etmesinin olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi; bunun da dolarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir reaksiyon riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 daha da t\u0131rman\u0131p petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece FOMC sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenebilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa i\u015flemcilerinin, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi \u015fahin beklentilerle son d\u00f6nemde 104,5 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da, Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u0131n forward guidance\u2019a y\u00f6nelik iyi bilinen isteksizli\u011fi Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde taahh\u00fct vermeyece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 dolardaki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n h\u0131zla silinmesi halinde getiri elde etmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak bu durumu de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Dolar k\u0131sa (short) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik temel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk, \u0130ran \u00e7evresindeki jeopolitik gerilim olup Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83 dolar civar\u0131nda dalgal\u0131 tutuyor. Ani bir askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bir anda yukar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rat\u0131p Fed\u2019i daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa zorlayabilmesi nedeniyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda portf\u00f6ylerini hedge etmeleri gerekiyor. Bu t\u00fcr jeopolitik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in uzun (long) ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya volatilite straddle stratejileri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son ABD istihdam verileri sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ederken\u2014\u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %3,6\u2019ya gerilemesi ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ortalama 160 bin ile istikrarl\u0131 seyretmesi\u2014Fed\u2019in acele etmesini gerektirecek temel bir i\u00e7 dinamik bask\u0131 bulunmuyor. Bu da, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k atfeden k\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasan\u0131n daha sab\u0131rl\u0131 ve veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 bir merkez bankas\u0131 patikas\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131yla de\u011fer yakalamak ad\u0131na Eyl\u00fcl vadeli SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ak\u0131ll\u0131ca bir tercih oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: ABD\u2019de istihdam \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 so\u011fuyor, \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor; Fed\u2019in acelesi yok. \u0130ran gerilimi faiz beklentilerini \u015fi\u015firiyor. Warsh\u2019tan \u015fahin ama y\u00f6nlendirmesiz metin; dolar kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenebilir. EUR\/USD call, petrol call\/straddle, Eyl\u00fcl SOFR long \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t