ING analistleri Chris Turner ve Padhraic Garvey, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) haziranda politika faizini %1,00\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimini korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n n\u00f6tr faizinin %2,00 civar\u0131nda bulundu\u011funa dair Politika Kurulu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faizin %1,00\u2019de sabit b\u0131rak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren analistler, oda\u011f\u0131n bankan\u0131n ekonomik aktivite, fiyatlar ve finansal ko\u015fullar ba\u011flam\u0131nda parasal gev\u015femenin daha da geri \u00e7ekilmesini nas\u0131l \u00e7er\u00e7eveleyece\u011fine kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yen\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, BoJ\u2019un nisan\/may\u0131s d\u00f6nemindeki d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinin etkisiz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir patikaya ili\u015fkin spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kaynak haberlere g\u00f6re baz\u0131 \u00fcyeler, aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131 ima eden alt\u0131 ayda bir art\u0131\u015f temposu yerine, eyl\u00fcl veya ekim kadar erken bir tarihte takip niteli\u011finde bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih edebilir. Ba\u015fkan Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toplant\u0131lara d\u00f6nmesi bekleniyor; bu da kurulun yeniden dokuza tamamlanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Piyasalar, ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k (back-to-back) faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir hamleye odaklanabilir; \u00f6zellikle Hajime Nakata\u2019ya Junko Nakagawa ve Naoki Tamura\u2019n\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Kabine Ofisi toplant\u0131lara kat\u0131l\u0131yor ve tutanaklar, ofisin Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 bir ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015finin kritik oldu\u011fu\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kay\u0131t alt\u0131na al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
BoJ\u2019un hedefini %2,00\u2019lik n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131na do\u011fru kayd\u0131rmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yen senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Politika faizi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %1,00 seviyesindeyken, USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete i\u015ftirak etmek i\u00e7in cazip bir yol sunuyor. Bu strateji, Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steren son verilerle de destekleniyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, karar al\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fczerindeki \u201cgecikmeden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya yen faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz \u00f6denmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. On y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirileri \u015fimdiden %1,0-%1,1 band\u0131 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor ve piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sonbaharda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla daha da y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel. Merkez bankas\u0131 kurulunun yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131da daha \u015fahin bir oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 sergilemesi halinde, swap oranlar\u0131 sert tepki verecektir.<\/p>\n\n
Ani politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerini yakalamak i\u00e7in, vadesi eyl\u00fcl ve ekim civar\u0131nda dolan k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlara odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri yen carry trade\u2019inin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetiklemi\u015f; bu da d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda volatilitede ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. %2,00\u2019lik n\u00f6tr faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131k\u00e7a, portf\u00f6yleri bu t\u00fcr ani hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korumak kritik olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoJ\u2019un %1 faizi sonras\u0131 \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma devam\u201d sinyali yen\u2019de oyunu de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir: n\u00f6tr faiz %2. Eyl\u00fcl-ekim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 masada. Strateji: USD\/JPY put, JGB short, swapta sabit \u00f6de. Volatiliteye kalkan \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50190,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t