EUR\/USD, 1,13\u2019\u00fcn orta-\u00fcst band\u0131nda dar bir aral\u0131kta yatay seyrediyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faiz beklentileri, son d\u00f6nemdeki geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan \u201cistikrarl\u0131\u201d olarak nitelendirilirken, getiri farklar\u0131 pariteye destek veriyor. Son euro b\u00f6lgesi verileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; oda\u011fa, enerji kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zirveye yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden Almanya ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 yerle\u015fti. Dikkatler ABD\u2019ye \u00e7evrilirken, bir sonraki odak noktas\u0131 14.00 ET\u2019deki Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) faiz karar\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131, euronun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunmas\u0131na do\u011fru kay\u0131yor. Risk reversal\u2019lar daha da negatife indi ve haziran sonu diplerine yakla\u015ft\u0131; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, EUR zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma maliyetinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, en son Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Ticaret Komisyonu (CFTC) verilerinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan daha yumu\u015fak spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlanmayla paralel. Grafikte RSI 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalsa da, \u00f6nceki y\u00fcksek-30\u2019lar seviyesindeki diplerden yukar\u0131 toparland\u0131. Parite 1,1480 civar\u0131ndaki direncin alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131rken, 1,13\u2019\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerindeki destekle dengeleniyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u00f6n, bu band\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla netle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD paritesinde olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kur \u015fu anda 1,1300 deste\u011fi ile 1,1480 civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir bantta konsolide olsa da, bu sakinli\u011fin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 beklenmiyor. K\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair uyar\u0131 sinyalleri veren opsiyon piyasas\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
Risk reversal\u2019lar\u0131n daha negatife kaymas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir euroya kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar i\u00e7in prim \u00f6dedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, CFTC verilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve euroda spek\u00fclatif net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret eden tabloyla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; bu da kurumsal g\u00fcvenin belirgin bi\u00e7imde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak risk reversal\u2019lardaki benzer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendlerin \u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f durumda; bu nedenle euro put\u2019lar\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
En uygun stratejinin, kritik 1,1300 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 hedefleyen vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyon almak oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131n volatiliteyi art\u0131rma ihtimali y\u00fcksekken, bu t\u00fcr korunmalar portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in g\u00f6rece uygun maliyetli bir yol sunuyor. Deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, otomatik sat\u0131\u015f programlar\u0131 ve spek\u00fclatif pozisyon kapamalar\u0131 devreye girerek h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" FOMC \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD 1,1300\u20131,1480 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ECB beklentileri stabil. Opsiyonlarda risk reversal\u2019lar negatife derinle\u015fiyor, CFTC net long\u2019lar eriyor: 1,1300 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kap\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t