Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.003 dolar b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru hafif geriledi ve piyasalar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politika karar\u0131n\u0131 beklemesiyle son d\u00f6nemdeki geri \u00e7ekilmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Y\u00fcksek seyreden ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131, k\u00fcl\u00e7enin cazibesini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; getirilerin y\u00fckselmesi faiz getirmeyen bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131rken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar alt\u0131n\u0131 dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Fed\u2019in federal fon oran\u0131n\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 olarak fiyatlasa da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %64\u2019\u00fc \u201cpas\u201d beklentisinde.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de fiyatlamalara yans\u0131d\u0131. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran f\u00fczelerinin ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerini hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunlar\u0131n durduruldu\u011fu; ABD ve Suudi g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin ise Irak\u2019taki lojistik ve silah noktalar\u0131na misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bildirildi. T\u0131rmanan gerilim ham petrol\u00fc sert y\u00fckseltirken enflasyon endi\u015felerini de canland\u0131rd\u0131; bu durum, daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. 4 saatlik grafikte XAU\/USD 4.011,96 dolarda; 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.056) ve 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.061) alt\u0131nda seyrederken RSI 39 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. Diren\u00e7ler 4.025, 4.033 ve 4.048 dolar; destekler 4.024 ve ard\u0131ndan 3.996 dolar seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 kritik 4.000 dolar seviyesi civar\u0131nda zay\u0131f seyrederken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli (bearish) yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in faizleri %3,50 ile %3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini %80 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131, artan f\u0131rsat maliyeti nedeniyle faiz getirmeyen alt\u0131n\u0131 daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu bask\u0131, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin yeniden %4,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla peki\u015fiyor ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ABD ve \u0130ran g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131ndaki son askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekiyor. K\u00fcresel ham petrol g\u00f6stergeleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayarak Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlara veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na \u00f6ncelik vermeli; zira y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonist tehdidi, \u015fu a\u015famada alt\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011finden daha bask\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 3.996 dolardaki ilk destek taban\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Alt\u0131n 20 periyotluk hareketli ortalama olan 4.056 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken ve G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi 39 ile zay\u0131f seyrederken, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafta bulunuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019tan gelebilecek ani \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bear put spread stratejilerini kullanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda 4.000 dolar s\u0131nav\u0131: Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi getiriler ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi petrol\u00fc 85 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f, 3.996 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t