EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc saat 18:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 1,1400 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda seyretti; parite 1,1393 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir duraksaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 piyasa volatilitesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Petrol yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti ve West Texas Intermediate (WTI) \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla 83 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan normal sevkiyata h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden g\u00fcndemin merkezine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 ilk etapta y\u00fckseldi ancak karar \u00f6ncesinde kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 101,49 zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan 101,35 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Fed\u2019in faizleri %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak CME FedWatch Tool verilerine g\u00f6re vadeli i\u015flemler 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Yeni projeksiyonlar veya dot plot olmayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n politika patikas\u0131na ve EUR\/USD\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcne ili\u015fkin sinyal \u00fcretmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, EUR\/USD paritesinde uzun straddle stratejileri kullanarak artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 1,1400 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken ve kritik Fed karar\u0131na saatler kalm\u0131\u015fken, z\u0131mni kur volatilitesinin belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Tarihsel veriler, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da benzer ani jeopolitik gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinin kur volatilite endekslerini birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131rabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele amac\u0131yla s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin %30 olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir hedge imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 101,49\u2019daki son zirvesini kolayl\u0131kla a\u015farak 102,50 seviyesini hedeflemesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu yaz\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son ekonomik veriler, ABD ekonomisinin Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne k\u0131yasla bu daha s\u0131k\u0131 ko\u015fullara dayanabilecek kadar diren\u00e7li kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 83 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla birlikte enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde de pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda s\u00fcregelen sevkiyat aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in 88\u201390 dolar civar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 WTI al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Enerji analistleri, bu kritik koridorda uzayan sevkiyat gecikmelerinin tarihsel olarak k\u00fcresel petrol g\u00f6stergelerini bir ay i\u00e7inde %10\u2013%15 yukar\u0131 itti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 ve jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 nedeniyle, kald\u0131ra\u00e7 oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f stop-loss seviyelerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fck takas kurulu\u015flar\u0131nda teminat gereklilikleri, ani askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131kl\u0131kla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131r; bu durum a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 hesaplarda zorunlu tasfiyeleri tetikleyebilir. Takvim spread\u2019leri (calendar spreads) kullan\u0131m\u0131, bu son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez i\u015flem penceresinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken prim toplamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD 1,1400 alt\u0131nda sakin; ancak Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve WTI\u2019nin 83 dolara s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f\u0131 volatiliteyi k\u00f6p\u00fcrtt\u00fc. Piyasada %30 s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f, straddle ve koruyucu putlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t