{"id":51958,"date":"2026-07-29T17:22:20","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T17:22:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fed-karari-yaklasirken-petrol-sicramasi-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-yukseltti-dolar-volatilitesini-yeniden-alevlendirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T17:22:20","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T17:22:20","slug":"fed-karari-yaklasirken-petrol-sicramasi-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-yukseltti-dolar-volatilitesini-yeniden-alevlendirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-karari-yaklasirken-petrol-sicramasi-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-yukseltti-dolar-volatilitesini-yeniden-alevlendirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Karar\u0131 Yakla\u015f\u0131rken Petrol S\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Y\u00fckseltti, Dolar Volatilitesini Yeniden Alevlendirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Federal Rezerv, faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 18:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klayacak; bunu 18:30 GMT\u2019de bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 izleyecek. Piyasalar, FOMC\u2019nin Temmuz\u2019da \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci toplant\u0131da da faizleri %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; ancak CME FedWatch Arac\u0131, 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor (bir hafta \u00f6nce %15\u2019ti). Petrol yeniden enflasyon tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n merkezine oturdu: May\u0131s\u2019tan Haziran sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 gerileyen WTI, ABD-\u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki faaliyeti aksatmas\u0131yla Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 67 dolardan 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve k\u0131smi geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen bu ay h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 art\u0131da.<\/p>\n

OCBC verileri, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 ABD enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan Temmuz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %10\u2019a indirirken, petrol\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n yeniden %35\u2019e toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; kurumun \u00e7er\u00e7evesi ayr\u0131ca 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar toplam yakla\u015f\u0131k 55 baz puanl\u0131k ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na da i\u015faret ediyor. S\u00fcrpriz bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m\u0131n USD\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip EUR\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi muhtemel; \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131 ise muhalif oylar ve mesajlamay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Warsh\u2019\u00fcn \u00f6nceki ifadesi FXS Speechtracker\u2019da 10 \u00fczerinden 5,4 puan ald\u0131. Teknik olarak EUR\/USD\u2019de destek 1,1280, 1,1160 ve 1,1000; diren\u00e7 1,1460-1,1490, 1,1570 ve 1,1635 seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n

Fed Karar\u0131 \u00d6ncesinde T\u00fcrev Piyasas\u0131nda Oynakl\u0131k<\/h3>\n

Federal Rezerv bug\u00fcn faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klarken, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Politika faizinin %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutulmas\u0131 temel senaryo olsa da, s\u00fcrpriz 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaki %15\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Fed\u2019in nihai karar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak k\u0131sa vadeli sert hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu ani belirsizli\u011fin arkas\u0131ndaki ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7, WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde bu ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen %20\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama ve fiyat\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki arz kesintilerine benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki enerji \u015foklar\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 ikincil enflasyonu \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine zorlad\u0131. Bu \u015fahinlik riskine kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, uzun hisse portf\u00f6ylerini b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse endekslerinde k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flem k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 veya put opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge etmesini uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz ve Enerji \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

D\u00f6viz t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan EUR\/USD paritesi, \u015fu anda 1,1460 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Fed bug\u00fcn \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz yaparsa, 1,1280\u2019deki kritik destek seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m bekliyoruz. Euro\u2019da kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme kazanmas\u0131 halinde olduk\u00e7a asimetrik bir getiri profili sunabilir.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda deniz faaliyetinin durmas\u0131 nedeniyle WTI\u2019\u0131n ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 enerji opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlememiz gerekiyor. Jeopolitik \u201cmolalar\u201d\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z sermaye riski almadan olas\u0131 yeni t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ham petrolde bull call spread kurgulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmelere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flarken, petrol\u00fcn yeniden 100 dolara y\u00f6nelmesi halinde yukar\u0131 potansiyeli a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de: Faizler sabit kalsa da 25 bp art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %30\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Petrol\u00fcn 90$ \u00fczeri seyri enflasyon riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; s\u00fcrpriz ad\u0131m USD\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip EUR\/USD\u2019yi bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51958","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t