Commerzbank, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyondaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fin beklentilerden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, bu sonucu zay\u0131f ithal enflasyon ve kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011finin (exchange-rate pass-through) varsay\u0131landan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131. Bankan\u0131n analizi, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen genel olarak \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyonist bask\u0131lara i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Commerzbank, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) politika faizlerinin 2027 sonuna kadar de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tahminini korudu. Bu da s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde \u0130svi\u00e7re ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir faiz fark\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Commerzbank ayr\u0131ca bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn orta vadede EUR\/CHF i\u00e7in destekleyici olabilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile \u0130svi\u00e7re aras\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu 2026 ortas\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviye olan %1,3\u2019te yatay seyrederken, SNB\u2019nin politika faizini %1,25\u2019te sabit tutmak i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir alan\u0131 bulunuyor. \u00d6te yandan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) g\u00f6sterge faizi %3,25 ile belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek seviyede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve bu da y\u00fcksek getirili bir faiz spreadini koruyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu, kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011finin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde korunakl\u0131; bu da Frank\u2019taki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n yurt i\u00e7i fiyatlarda ani y\u00fckseli\u015fleri tetiklemeyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na ait son veriler de ithalat fiyat\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n son derece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Bu nedenle, para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in SNB\u2019nin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesini beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n
EUR\/CHF kurunda kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon almak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, 0,98\u20131,00 band\u0131 hedefli kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip orta vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. D\u00fczenli gelir arayanlar i\u00e7in EUR\/CHF para swaplar\u0131na girmek, geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 pozitif ta\u015f\u0131ma (carry) getirisini yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar. Knock-out al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 gibi yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlar kullan\u0131m\u0131 da, Frank zay\u0131flarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli korurken prim maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Geni\u015f getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2018 sonu gibi benzer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon d\u00f6nemlerinde Frank, birka\u00e7 ay boyunca Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015fti. Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; beklenmedik bir yava\u015flama, Avrupa\u2019da daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirimlerini tetikleyerek getiri fark\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak daraltabilir. Ancak mevcut makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/CHF\u2019te geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m stratejisini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz! \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; zay\u0131f ithal enflasyon ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Commerzbank, SNB faizi 2027\u2019ye dek sabit, ECB y\u00fcksek: EUR\/CHF y\u00fckseli\u015f\/carry f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50289,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t