{"id":51956,"date":"2026-07-29T16:52:29","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T16:52:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/orta-dogudaki-gerilim-petrolu-ve-tahvil-getirilerini-yukseltti-avustralya-enflasyonu-aussieyi-baskiladi-fed-karari-yaklasirken\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T16:52:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T16:52:29","slug":"orta-dogudaki-gerilim-petrolu-ve-tahvil-getirilerini-yukseltti-avustralya-enflasyonu-aussieyi-baskiladi-fed-karari-yaklasirken","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogudaki-gerilim-petrolu-ve-tahvil-getirilerini-yukseltti-avustralya-enflasyonu-aussieyi-baskiladi-fed-karari-yaklasirken\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim petrol\u00fc ve tahvil getirilerini y\u00fckseltti, Avustralya enflasyonu Aussie\u2019yi bask\u0131lad\u0131; Fed karar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yenilenen Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi, petrol\u00fc d\u00f6rt seanst\u0131r ilk kez y\u00fckseltirken Avrupa ve ABD tahvil getirilerindeki \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de tersine \u00e7evirdi; ABD dolar\u0131 ise G10 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fekilde kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti. Avustralya\u2019da haziran T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin daha yumu\u015fak gelmesi, vadeli piyasay\u0131 2026 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini (H1 26\u2019da \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan) daha da budamaya itti; Avustralya dolar\u0131 iki haftay\u0131 a\u015fan dip seviyelerde ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle G10\u2019un en zay\u0131f\u0131yd\u0131. GO\u00dc taraf\u0131nda G\u00fcney Kore wonu ve Tayvan dolar\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015farak g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; PBOC dolar fixini 6,7928\u2019den CNY6,7899\u2019a \u00e7ekti; bu, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyede marjinal yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olarak kaydedildi. Ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 derecede belirsiz bir FOMC karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ederken, bug\u00fcne yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 bp (yakla\u015f\u0131k 1\/3 ihtimal) fiyatland\u0131; eyl\u00fcl hamlesi tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir art\u0131\u015f daha i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131k %70\u2019in biraz \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n\n

FX taraf\u0131nda euro, $1,1355\u2019in hemen alt\u0131ndan $1,1410 yak\u0131n\u0131na toparland\u0131; bug\u00fcn vadesi dolan $1,1415 seviyesinde \u20ac1,1 mlr\u2019l\u0131k ve yar\u0131n $1,1375\u2019te neredeyse \u20ac2 mlr\u2019l\u0131k opsiyon bulunuyor. Dolar\/yen, JPY163,30 yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 yoklad\u0131ktan sonra JPY163,70 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; yar\u0131n vadesi dolan JPY163,50\u2019de $1,45 mlr\u2019l\u0131k opsiyon var. Sterlin $1,3275\u2019e kadar geriledikten sonra $1,3280\u2013$1,3310 band\u0131nda tutundu. Dolar\/Kanada, bug\u00fcn CAD1,4100\u2019de vadesi dolan yakla\u015f\u0131k $500 mln\u2019l\u0131k opsiyon etkisiyle CAD1,4130 yak\u0131n\u0131ndan CAD1,4085 civar\u0131na gev\u015fedi. Avustralya dolar\u0131, $0,6965 civar\u0131ndaki iki haftal\u0131k dipten sonra $0,6940\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Di\u011fer tarafta dolar, d\u00fcn MXN17,4175\u201317,4930 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bug\u00fcn ise 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019nin \u00e7\/\u00e7 %0,6 daralmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 MXN17,4275\u201317,4600 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; CNH iki haftal\u0131k 6,7630\u20136,7820 band\u0131nda kald\u0131. Rupi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken dolar, ge\u00e7en hafta sonundaki INR96,57\u2019den k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine INR95,49\u2019un alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n

Asya borsalar\u0131 genel olarak yatay seyrederken G\u00fcney Kore Kospi %6, Tayvan Taiex %3,75 geriledi; Stoxx 600 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi. \u00dc\u00e7 seansta 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvili ve Bund getirileri 10 bp, gilt getirileri 16 bp d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckten sonra Avrupa\u2019da 2\u20134 bp toparland\u0131; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi %4,62 seviyesindeydi. Alt\u0131n, $4012\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na inerek be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck dip yapt\u0131 ve $4010 \u00fczerinde tutunurken $4050 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f $56,65\u2019e kadar gerileyip sonras\u0131nda $58,25\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl vadeli WTI, $77,80\u2019in hemen alt\u0131ndan $83,30\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p $82 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de haziran konut kredisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 iyile\u015firken net t\u00fcketici kredisi neredeyse istikrarl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; swaplar BoE\u2019nin yar\u0131n hamle yapma ihtimalini neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r, eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %55 ve kas\u0131m ba\u015f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor. Avustralya\u2019da haziranda T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %0,1 d\u00fc\u015fmesi enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,0\u2019tan %3,8\u2019e \u00e7ekti; 2026 1\u00c7\u2019de %1,4\u2019\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 2\u00c7 T\u00dcFE %0,6 artt\u0131; k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama \u00e7\/\u00e7 %0,8 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 (\u00f6nceki %3,5) oldu; ima edilen s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ge\u00e7en hafta sonundaki 30 bp\u2019den 13 bp\u2019nin biraz alt\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n\n

Energy, Rates, and Currency Market Outlook<\/h3>\n\n

Yenilenen Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 nedeniyle Eyl\u00fcl vadeli WTI\u2019\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde $83,30\u2019a toparlanmas\u0131, enerji taraf\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu nedenle Eyl\u00fcl WTI \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyonlanarak dalgalanmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik risk primi, ge\u00e7mi\u015f b\u00f6lgesel t\u0131rmanmalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara benzer \u015fekilde ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131na varil ba\u015f\u0131na h\u0131zla ek $5\u2013$10 enjekte edebiliyor. Call opsiyonlar\u0131yla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli sat\u0131n alarak ani arz kaynakl\u0131 \u015foklardan faydalan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlayabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n

10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %4,62\u2019de dengelenmesi ve piyasan\u0131n bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 1\/3 olas\u0131l\u0131kla acil bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, Warsh ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fahinli\u011fin abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Daha yumu\u015fak haziran T\u00dcFE\u2019si ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015fan istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla pas ge\u00e7mesi beklenir; bu senaryo tarihsel olarak tahvillerde rahatlama rallisi ve getirilerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n yarat\u0131r. Getirilerin yeniden %4,40 b\u00f6lgesine gerilemesine oynayacak \u015fekilde ABD tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda stratejik t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler i\u00e7in Avustralya dolar\u0131 ve Japon yenine odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131. RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi, \u00f6zellikle $0,6960 seviyesini korumakta zorlan\u0131rken AUD\u2019yi sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Di\u011fer yandan USD\/JPY paritesi kritik JPY163,30 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na k\u0131rarsa, JPY162,60\u2019a do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir teknik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Metals and Safe Haven Strategy<\/h3>\n\n

Alt\u0131n $4010 \u00fczerinde istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korurken ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f $57,50 civar\u0131nda konsolide olurken, jeopolitik tansiyonun s\u00fcrmesi ve dolar\u0131n G10\u2019da kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyri nedeniyle bu metallerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak k\u0131ymetli metaller, para politikas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi ve y\u00fcksek tarifeler d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cnihai g\u00fcvenli liman\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6rerek uzun s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda s\u0131kl\u0131kla \u00e7ift haneli getiriler \u00fcretiyor. $4050 civar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 senaryosundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131nda uzun call spread pozisyonlar\u0131 kademeli \u015fekilde biriktirilmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi petrol\u00fc $83\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131, tahvil getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi; FOMC belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yumu\u015fak Avustralya T\u00dcFE\u2019si AUD\u2019yi ezdi. Strateji: WTI call, ABD tahvil call, AUD ve USD\/JPY put; alt\u0131nda $4050 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in call spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t