Brown Brothers Harriman, Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) federal fon hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu da \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci toplant\u0131da herhangi bir ad\u0131m at\u0131lmamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecek. Karar\u0131n Londra saatiyle 19:00\u2019da (New York 14:00) a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131, 30 dakika sonra da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fa %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131k tan\u0131yor. De\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131 halinde, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda ilk etapta bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; ancak daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren \u015fahin bir mesaj e\u015flik ederse dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik FOMC karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa halihaz\u0131rda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %30 olas\u0131l\u0131k verirken, bizim beklentimiz Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu faiz sabiti ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu strateji, son makro verilerle de destekleniyor: ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu %2,6 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korurken, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 beklenmedik bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k sergiliyor. Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon ko\u015fullar\u0131nda verdi\u011fi molalarda\u20142023\u2019teki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli duraklamalara benzer \u015fekilde\u2014Dolar Endeksi \u00f6nce k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli gerilemi\u015f, ard\u0131ndan izleyen ayda %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde yeniden y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan gelecek \u015fahin y\u00f6nlendirme fiyatlara yerle\u015ftik\u00e7e benzer bir h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmaya pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Beklenen bu patikadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmeyi de\u011ferlendirecek k\u0131sa vadeli FX opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle, a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramada EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ard\u0131ndan beklenen dolar toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 yakalayacakt\u0131r. Bu i\u015flem kurgusu, Fed\u2019in s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesi halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken, \u015fahin tonun dolar\u0131 yeniden yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131yla kazanc\u0131 maksimize etmeyi hedefler.<\/p>\n\n
Buna ek olarak, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 y\u00fckselirlerse sonbahar vadeli Fed fon kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alman\u0131n cazip de\u011fer sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle %4,10 civar\u0131nda seyreden 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirilerinin, piyasan\u0131n \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla y\u00fckselmesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k. %3,50\u2013%3,75 band\u0131nda uzayan bir sabit tutma s\u00fcrecine kar\u015f\u0131 hedge etmek, A\u011fustos\u2019un geri kalan\u0131 boyunca yap\u0131\u015fkan getirilerin portf\u00f6yler \u00fczerinde yaratabilece\u011fi bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kritik FOMC \u00f6ncesi g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de: BBH faizlerin %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Pas karar\u0131 dolar\u0131 sarsabilir; \u015fahin mesajla h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma ve opsiyon f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t